USD/CHF holds gains near 0.7850 ahead of Fed interest rate decision
- USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar steadies on market caution ahead of the Fed decision.
- Traders await Powell’s guidance on how rising oil prices may shape the Fed’s policy outlook.
- The Swiss National Bank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday.
USD/CHF gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 0.7850 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains steady on market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. If the Fed opts to hold rates steady, it would mark the second consecutive pause, reflecting a cautious stance amid increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks to gain impetus regarding how the recent surge in oil prices may influence the central bank’s policy outlook. Energy prices may further appreciate on following recent US military strikes on Iranian coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, citing threats from anti-ship missiles to global shipping, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, the BBC reported that Israel claimed responsibility for strikes that killed senior Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani.
However, the USD/CHF came under pressure as the Swiss Franc (CHF) gained on safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical risks. However, CHF’s upside may be limited after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) signaled a stronger willingness to intervene in FX markets, citing concerns that continued currency strength could trigger deflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, surging energy prices linked to the Iran conflict pose risks to the global economy by fueling inflation and increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates. The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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