EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Bounces off range low
Source Fxstreet
- EUR/GBP price has fallen to the floor of a multi-month range and rebounded off support.
- It is now poised to begin rising back up inside the channel continuing the sideways trend.
- The MACD indicator is poised to cross its signal line giving a buy signal, reinforcing the new up move.
EUR/GBP price has fallen to 0.8530, one pip above the base of a multi-month range at 0.8530.
The pair has bounced off the support from the range low and is trading back up at 0.8547 at the time of publication.
EUR/GBP 4-hour Chart
EUR/GBP is in a sideways trend which is forecast to continue until a directional bias proves otherwise. It will now probably start rising back up inside the range towards resistance from the cluster of Moving Averages in the 0.8560s. If it successfully breaks above them it will probably continue up to the ceiling of the range at roughly 0.8595.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator looks like it is poised to cross above its signal line. If it does it will give a buy signal and suggest more upside increasing the probability of a rally within the range. The signal would be improved by the fact the pair is in a sideways trend and MACD is proven to be a more reliable indicator in non-trending markets.
A decisive break below the range low would open the way for more downside to the next target at 0.8486. This is the 0.681 Fibonacci ratio of the height of the range extrapolated lower from the channel’s base. This is the method used by technical analysts to estimate range breakouts. Further weakness could even see price reach the next target at 0.8460, the full height of the range extrapolated lower (1.000).
A decisive break would be one characterized by a long red candlestick that broke completely below the range floor and closed near its low, or three consecutive red candlesticks that broke clearly below the level.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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