AUD/USD gains momentum above 0.6500 ahead of Australian Retail Sales data

Source Fxstreet
  • AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a stronger note near 0.6535. 
  • The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed by 2.7% YoY in March, above the market consensus of 2.6%. 
  • The firmer-than-expected Australian inflation data have triggered the RBA to delay the interest rate cut this year.

The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory for six consecutive days around 0.6535 during the early Asian session on Monday. The upward momentum of the pair is bolstered by the hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after the recent release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data last week. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be in the spotlight for this week.  

Inflation in the United States rose moderately in March, keeping the US Fed to hold the interest rate higher for longer for a while. US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, climbed to 2.7% YoY in March from 2.5% in February, above the market consensus of 2.6%, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday. Meanwhile, the Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% YoY in March, stronger than the expectation of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, both headline PCE and the core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in March.

The US central bank is expected to hold rates steady in the 5.25%–5.50% range on Wednesday. Investors anticipate the first rate cut to come in September, as recent labor market and inflation data showed a surprise on the upside.

On the Aussie front, traders increase their bets that the RBA might raise its cash rate again before it cuts. The hotter-than-anticipated Australian inflation last week erased the odds of a rate cut this year. The futures market has priced in just a 19% chance of easing at the RBA’s December meeting. The hawkish stance of the RBA boosts the Australian Dollar (AUD) and creates a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. 

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6536
Today Daily Change 0.0003
Today Daily Change % 0.05
Today daily open 0.6533
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6505
Daily SMA50 0.6533
Daily SMA100 0.6587
Daily SMA200 0.6527
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6554
Previous Daily Low 0.6517
Previous Weekly High 0.6554
Previous Weekly Low 0.6414
Previous Monthly High 0.6667
Previous Monthly Low 0.6478
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.654
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6531
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6515
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6497
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6477
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6553
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6572
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6591

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 22, Thu
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 26, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 26, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
Oct 26, Mon
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 26, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
Big Tech's $800 billion AI bill faces its first real test — free cash flow is the judgeAlphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 26, Mon
Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
placeholder
Tesla jumps 5% as Barclays puts a $450 target on the SpaceX merger — the chart was already pointing to 431Tesla closed at $391.62 on October 26, up 5.21%, after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight and lifted its target to $450 from $370, citing a sharp inflection in Robotaxi miles and a potential SpaceX merger. The move also completed a double bottom at $345.88 and $349.33, with a neckline at $388.56 and a measured target of $431.24. Here is what the upgrade actually says, why the chart and the analyst now point the same way, and what would break the target.
Author  Irene Q.
18 hours ago
Tesla closed at $391.62 on October 26, up 5.21%, after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight and lifted its target to $450 from $370, citing a sharp inflection in Robotaxi miles and a potential SpaceX merger. The move also completed a double bottom at $345.88 and $349.33, with a neckline at $388.56 and a measured target of $431.24. Here is what the upgrade actually says, why the chart and the analyst now point the same way, and what would break the target.
placeholder
Fed October Rate Decision Preview: Rate Hike Pause Has Become Consensus, How Will US Stocks, Dollar, and Gold React?The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
Author  TradingKey
14 hours ago
The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
Related Instrument
goTop
quote