AUD/USD gains momentum above 0.6500 ahead of Australian Retail Sales data

Source Fxstreet
  • AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a stronger note near 0.6535. 
  • The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed by 2.7% YoY in March, above the market consensus of 2.6%. 
  • The firmer-than-expected Australian inflation data have triggered the RBA to delay the interest rate cut this year.

The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory for six consecutive days around 0.6535 during the early Asian session on Monday. The upward momentum of the pair is bolstered by the hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after the recent release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data last week. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be in the spotlight for this week.  

Inflation in the United States rose moderately in March, keeping the US Fed to hold the interest rate higher for longer for a while. US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, climbed to 2.7% YoY in March from 2.5% in February, above the market consensus of 2.6%, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday. Meanwhile, the Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% YoY in March, stronger than the expectation of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, both headline PCE and the core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in March.

The US central bank is expected to hold rates steady in the 5.25%–5.50% range on Wednesday. Investors anticipate the first rate cut to come in September, as recent labor market and inflation data showed a surprise on the upside.

On the Aussie front, traders increase their bets that the RBA might raise its cash rate again before it cuts. The hotter-than-anticipated Australian inflation last week erased the odds of a rate cut this year. The futures market has priced in just a 19% chance of easing at the RBA’s December meeting. The hawkish stance of the RBA boosts the Australian Dollar (AUD) and creates a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. 

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6536
Today Daily Change 0.0003
Today Daily Change % 0.05
Today daily open 0.6533
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6505
Daily SMA50 0.6533
Daily SMA100 0.6587
Daily SMA200 0.6527
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6554
Previous Daily Low 0.6517
Previous Weekly High 0.6554
Previous Weekly Low 0.6414
Previous Monthly High 0.6667
Previous Monthly Low 0.6478
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.654
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6531
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6515
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6497
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6477
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6553
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6572
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6591

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 11, Fri
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
placeholder
Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut — can the rally clear $110?Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 14, Mon
Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
Sep 14, Mon
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
placeholder
Gold falls below $4,300 as higher US yields bolster Fed rate hike betsGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 23
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
placeholder
【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve beginsThe 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Author  Irene Q.
23 hours ago
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote