GBP/JPY churns but finds higher ground near 195.00

• GBP/JPY inches into multi-year highs as Yen softens further.
• Odds are increasing of BoJ verbal intervention spilling over into actual intervention.
• Tokyo CPI inflation, BoJ rate call approach on Friday.

The GBP/JPY pushed into fresh multi-year highs on Thursday as the pair grinds towards the 195.00 handle. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken across the broader FX market, prompting increasing rhetoric from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) regarding direct intervention in currency markets to shore up the beleaguered JPY. The BoJ is expected to discuss intervention on the Yen’s behalf at their latest policy meeting, slated for Friday.

Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will be printing early Friday, and markets expect Japan’s leading inflation indicator to hold steady at 2.6% for the year ended in April. Core-core Tokyo CPI inflation (headline inflation less volatile food and energy prices) is expected to tick down slightly to 2.7% over the same period from the previous 2.9%.

The BoJ’s latest Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement are also expected early Friday, where markets will look out for signals of FXC intervention from the BoJ. Markets will also look for any announced changes to the BoJ’s bond-buying program.

A press conference headed by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected following the BoJ’s latest rate call.

GBP/JPY technical outlook

The Guppy has accelerated out of a recent technical range to approach the 195.00 handle, and the pair knocked into a fresh multi-year high. Further bullish momentum will carry the GBP/JPY into record highs, while downside pullbacks will look for a technical floor at 192.70.

The GBP/JPY is set to close for a third straight green day, and daily candles continue to hold well above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 185.08.

GBP/JPY hourly chart

GBP/JPY daily chart