Forecasting the Coming Week: Focus remains on central bank's policy divergence

Source Fxstreet
Apr 19, 2024 16:42

Another week dominated by bets regarding the most-likely timing of the Fed's start of the easing cycle saw the US Dollar rise to new highs, while conviction of an interest rate cut by the ECB in June remained on the rise… and dragged EUR/USD to as low as the 1.0600 neighbourhood.

It was a choppy week for the Greenback despite reaching new higher around 106.50 when measured by the USD Index (DXY). The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due on April 22, seconded by flash PMIs and New Home Sales on April 23. In addition, Durable Goods Orders are expected on April 24, while the GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales are all due on April 25. The release of inflation tracked by the PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment will close the week on April 26.

EUR/USD managed to regain some balance after bottoming out in five-month lows around 1.0600. The European Commission will publish its preliminary Consumer Confidence gauge on April 22, while advanced PMIs in the euro bloc are due on April 23 followed by Germany's IFO Business Climate on April 24. Still in Germany, Consumer Confidence measured by GfK is expected on April 25.

In quite an erratic week, GBP/USD dropped to yearly lows in the sub-1.2400 region just to regain some composure afterwards. In the UK, Public Sector Net Borrowing and flash PMIs are due on April 23 ahead of Gfk's Consumer Confidence on April 26.

USD/JPY extended its consolidative theme north of 154.00 amidst persistent market chatter around FX intervention. The Japanese calendar will see Foreign Bond Investment figures and the final Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index on April 25 prior to the BoJ interest rate decision and Quarterly Outlook Report on April 26.

Further losses saw AUD/USD clinch its second week in a row in the negative territory, breaking below the 0.6300 support for the first time since mid-November. Data-wise, In Australia, the flash Judo Bank PMIs are due on April 23 seconded by the Inflation Rate on April 24.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

  • BoE's Haskel and Pill along with ECB's Nagel, speak on April 23.
  • ECB's Nagel speaks on April 24 and 25.
  • SNB's Jordan speaks on April 26.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

  • The Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to hold rates at 6.0% on April 24.
  • The BoJ is seen keeping its rate unchanged on April 26.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Source  Fxstreet
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Source  Fxstreet
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Source  Fxstreet
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