Forecasting the Coming Week: Focus remains on central bank's policy divergence

Source Fxstreet

Another week dominated by bets regarding the most-likely timing of the Fed's start of the easing cycle saw the US Dollar rise to new highs, while conviction of an interest rate cut by the ECB in June remained on the rise… and dragged EUR/USD to as low as the 1.0600 neighbourhood.

It was a choppy week for the Greenback despite reaching new higher around 106.50 when measured by the USD Index (DXY). The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due on April 22, seconded by flash PMIs and New Home Sales on April 23. In addition, Durable Goods Orders are expected on April 24, while the GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales are all due on April 25. The release of inflation tracked by the PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment will close the week on April 26.

EUR/USD managed to regain some balance after bottoming out in five-month lows around 1.0600. The European Commission will publish its preliminary Consumer Confidence gauge on April 22, while advanced PMIs in the euro bloc are due on April 23 followed by Germany's IFO Business Climate on April 24. Still in Germany, Consumer Confidence measured by GfK is expected on April 25.

In quite an erratic week, GBP/USD dropped to yearly lows in the sub-1.2400 region just to regain some composure afterwards. In the UK, Public Sector Net Borrowing and flash PMIs are due on April 23 ahead of Gfk's Consumer Confidence on April 26.

USD/JPY extended its consolidative theme north of 154.00 amidst persistent market chatter around FX intervention. The Japanese calendar will see Foreign Bond Investment figures and the final Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index on April 25 prior to the BoJ interest rate decision and Quarterly Outlook Report on April 26.

Further losses saw AUD/USD clinch its second week in a row in the negative territory, breaking below the 0.6300 support for the first time since mid-November. Data-wise, In Australia, the flash Judo Bank PMIs are due on April 23 seconded by the Inflation Rate on April 24.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

  • BoE's Haskel and Pill along with ECB's Nagel, speak on April 23.
  • ECB's Nagel speaks on April 24 and 25.
  • SNB's Jordan speaks on April 26.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

  • The Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to hold rates at 6.0% on April 24.
  • The BoJ is seen keeping its rate unchanged on April 26.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 22, Thu
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 26, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 26, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 01: 52
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 26, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
Big Tech's $800 billion AI bill faces its first real test — free cash flow is the judgeAlphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 05: 32
Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
placeholder
Gold breaks $4,000 as oil becomes the inflation problem — $3,943 is the line that mattersSpot gold closed at $3,995.6 on October 23, down about 4.1% for the week and at its lowest since mid-July, and traded near $3,988 on October 26 even as Brent crude settled at $116.72 and Middle East supply risk stayed elevated. The war premium stopped working because oil is now the inflation trade: December Fed hike odds are 68.9% and the 10-year yield is 4.988%. Here are the three numbers, the transmission chain, and the July low at $3,943 that decides whether this is a bottom or a bigger correction.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 06: 41
Spot gold closed at $3,995.6 on October 23, down about 4.1% for the week and at its lowest since mid-July, and traded near $3,988 on October 26 even as Brent crude settled at $116.72 and Middle East supply risk stayed elevated. The war premium stopped working because oil is now the inflation trade: December Fed hike odds are 68.9% and the 10-year yield is 4.988%. Here are the three numbers, the transmission chain, and the July low at $3,943 that decides whether this is a bottom or a bigger correction.
placeholder
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Drops Below $80,000 in Fifth Straight Loss, May Test $75,000 as FOMC Meeting Approaches Bitcoin falls below the $80,000 mark as the October FOMC decision approaches, threatening a further dip toward $75,000.On October 26, Bitcoin (BTC) again lost the key psychological mark o
Author  TradingKey
20 hours ago
Bitcoin falls below the $80,000 mark as the October FOMC decision approaches, threatening a further dip toward $75,000.On October 26, Bitcoin (BTC) again lost the key psychological mark o
goTop
quote