Forecasting the Coming Week: Focus remains on central bank's policy divergence

Source Fxstreet

Another week dominated by bets regarding the most-likely timing of the Fed's start of the easing cycle saw the US Dollar rise to new highs, while conviction of an interest rate cut by the ECB in June remained on the rise… and dragged EUR/USD to as low as the 1.0600 neighbourhood.

It was a choppy week for the Greenback despite reaching new higher around 106.50 when measured by the USD Index (DXY). The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due on April 22, seconded by flash PMIs and New Home Sales on April 23. In addition, Durable Goods Orders are expected on April 24, while the GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales are all due on April 25. The release of inflation tracked by the PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment will close the week on April 26.

EUR/USD managed to regain some balance after bottoming out in five-month lows around 1.0600. The European Commission will publish its preliminary Consumer Confidence gauge on April 22, while advanced PMIs in the euro bloc are due on April 23 followed by Germany's IFO Business Climate on April 24. Still in Germany, Consumer Confidence measured by GfK is expected on April 25.

In quite an erratic week, GBP/USD dropped to yearly lows in the sub-1.2400 region just to regain some composure afterwards. In the UK, Public Sector Net Borrowing and flash PMIs are due on April 23 ahead of Gfk's Consumer Confidence on April 26.

USD/JPY extended its consolidative theme north of 154.00 amidst persistent market chatter around FX intervention. The Japanese calendar will see Foreign Bond Investment figures and the final Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index on April 25 prior to the BoJ interest rate decision and Quarterly Outlook Report on April 26.

Further losses saw AUD/USD clinch its second week in a row in the negative territory, breaking below the 0.6300 support for the first time since mid-November. Data-wise, In Australia, the flash Judo Bank PMIs are due on April 23 seconded by the Inflation Rate on April 24.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

  • BoE's Haskel and Pill along with ECB's Nagel, speak on April 23.
  • ECB's Nagel speaks on April 24 and 25.
  • SNB's Jordan speaks on April 26.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

  • The Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to hold rates at 6.0% on April 24.
  • The BoJ is seen keeping its rate unchanged on April 26.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Author  Suzie
Sep 20, Sun
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Gold holds steady below $4,150 amid elevated US yields Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,140 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields was offset by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month.
Author  FXStreet
Oct 06, Tue
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,140 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields was offset by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month.
placeholder
WTI rises to near $89.50 as Middle East supply threats offset Persian Gulf recoveryWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $89.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil climbed as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 26
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $89.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil climbed as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retraces gains and nears two-month lows at $4,104Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar (USD) appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
Author  FXStreet
16 hours ago
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar (USD) appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
goTop
quote