NZD/USD jumps to 0.5900 as investors see RBNZ pivoting to rate cuts later than expected

• NZD/USD moves higher to 0.5900 as traders see the RBNZ reducing key interest rates from November.
• NZ Q1 inflation grew by 0.6% as expected.
• Fed Powell returns to the “higher for longer interest rates” argument.

The NZD/USD pair extends its recovery to the round-level resistance of 0.5900 in Wednesday’s European session. The Kiwi asset strengthens as traders repriced bets supporting rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Investors now see the RBNZ beginning to lower borrowing rates from the November meeting instead of the October meeting. Market expectations for the RBNZ starting to reduce its Official Cash Rate (OCR) have been significantly influenced by the expected rise in New Zealand’s Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released in Wednesday’s early Asian session.

Stats NZ showed that NZ inflation rose by 0.6% as expected, higher from 0.5% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023. The annual inflation data decelerated to 4.0% against the prior reading of 4.7%. Currently, the RBNZ has been maintaining its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5%.

A sharp improvement in market sentiment has also boosted demand for the New Zealand Dollar. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the European session. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped slightly to 4.64%. The rally in the US Dollar Index (DXY) seems stalled near 106.40 as investors had priced in that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lean towards keeping interest rates higher for a longer period.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence” reported Reuters. In this statement, the recent data is hot consumer price inflation data for March.

Currently, financial markets are anticipating that the Fed will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.