JPY gains as BoJ hikes support currency – ING

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is finding support from expected BoJ rate hikes, with markets pricing a 25bp move for December 19. USD/JPY is projected to reach 152 by year-end, with a modest 148 forecast for 2026 as Japan balances reflation and currency strength, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

USD/JPY set for modest year-end pullback

"October's spike in USD/JPY above 150 came as a shock to many. And by mid-November, most had concluded there was little that could turn USD/JPY around apart from heavy official intervention at 160. Additionally, we've been asked several times whether the yen is losing its safe-haven status. We've replied that the benign risk environment means the yen has not seriously been tested on that score."

"However, it now seems that the prospect of Bank of Japan hikes is finally supporting the yen. A 25bp hike is virtually priced for the 19 December meeting and the 1m JPY OIS rate, priced two years' forward, has moved to 1.47% from 1.14% in the last month alone. The view here seems to be that the new Japanese government, despite its reflationary credentials, does not want to embrace a weak yen and will allow BoJ rate hikes."

"We've got a modest 152 target for USD/JPY by year-end. And also a modest 148 forecast for year-end 2026."