USD/CAD falls to near 1.3800, downside seems limited due to weaker Oil prices

• USD/CAD declines as the US Dollar weakens amid growing concerns over the potential economic fallout from US-imposed tariffs.

• The Greenback remains under pressure, with the 2-year US Treasury yield falling over 1% to 3.75%.

• The commodity-linked CAD may face headwinds due to falling crude Oil prices.

USD/CAD depreciates after registering gains in the previous session, trading around a six-month low at 1.3802 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair faces headwinds due to the weaker US Dollar (USD), remaining under pressure due to mounting concerns over the US economic fallout from US tariffs.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, dropped over 0.50%, trading around 98.50, its lowest level since April 2022, at the time of writing. The Greenback faces headwinds as the 2-year yield on US Treasury bonds has depreciated by more than 1%, standing at 3.75%.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell warned that a sluggish economy paired with persistent inflation could challenge the Fed’s objectives and raise the risk of stagflation. In political developments, reports on Thursday suggested President Trump’s frustration with Fed Chair Powell, even considering his removal. Although markets showed little immediate reaction, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett confirmed that Trump is exploring the possibility.

However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair may be limited, as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could come under pressure from declining crude Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is down over 1%, trading around $62.80 per barrel at the time of writing.

Crude Oil prices weakened following progress in nuclear negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran, easing concerns that geopolitical tensions would disrupt supply from the major Middle Eastern producer. According to Iran's foreign minister, both countries agreed on Saturday to start drafting a framework for a potential nuclear deal, with a US official describing the talks as showing “very good progress,” as reported by Reuters.