USD/JPY retreats from 147.15 as risk aversion eases ahead of the FOMC Minutes

• The US Dollar fails to break above 147.00 and gives away gains as risk aversion fades.

• Hopes of a trade deal between the US and Japan are providing some support to the Yen.

• Later today, the US FOMC Minutes will provide additional guidance for the US Dollar.

The US Dollar has trimmed previous gains on Wednesday’s European session, as market sentiment improved, and is trading with marginal gains against the Yen, nearing the mid-range of the 146.00s after rejection at 147.15.

The pair appreciated about 1.5% over the previous two days, after a letter from President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all products from Japan, and moved the deadline to August 1 from the original July 9.

Hopes of a trade deal are keeping the Yen from falling further

Trade negotiations between the two countries are going on, and the US Secretary, Scott Bessent, is expected to visit the World Expo in Osaka, where he is likely to meet with Japanese officials. This, and the willingness shown by both countries to reach an agreement, is feeding hopes that a deal is still possible, but that means solving critical issues like automobile exports.

In the meantime, the market mood has improved and US Treasury yields pulled lower, which provided some support to the Japanese Yen, highly sensitive to the differentials between Japanese and US bond yields.

Later today, the focus will shift to the minutes of June’s Federal Reserve meeting. Chairman Powell surprised with an unexpectedly hawkish tone at the press release following the decision, and later labour data has backed his views. The risk for the US Dollar is skewed for the upside.