■ EUR/USD gained over half of a percent on Tuesday.
■ Easing US inflation figures bolstered risk appetite, pummeling the US Dollar.
■ Key EU GDP growth data remains ahead, as well as US CPI inflation.
EUR/USD climbed on Tuesday, bolstered by a broad weakening of US Dollar bids after US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation cooled faster than expected. Fiber traders still await pan-EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers slated for early Wednesday, but investors will be broadly focused on upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures as risk appetite extends into recovery mode.
Forex Today: Rate cut expectations look at US inflation data
Euro-area GDP for the second quarter is expected to hold steady at previous figures of 0.3% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. While no change is expected, too steep of a deviation in either direction could kick off a fresh round of risk-off selling in Euro markets if the print comes in lower, or add fuel to the current bullish stance if growth finds a bounce.
US CPI inflation is widely expected to continue cooling in July, with markets forecasting core US CPI for the year ended in July to ease to 3.2% from the previous 3.3%. Headline CPI is more of the same, with median market forecasts expecting headline CPI inflation figures to tick down to 2.9% YoY from the previous 3.0%.
US PPI inflation eased to 2.2% YoY in July, falling below the expected 2.3% and declining even further from the previous period’s revised 2.7%. Core PPI inflation also declined to 2.4% for the year ended in July, dropping below the forecast 2.7% and falling well below the previous 3.0%. Continued declines in US inflation pressure bolstered risk appetite in the US market session, and market bets of a 50 basis point double-cut in September from the Federal Reserve (Fed) rose to 55%, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
EUR/USD price forecast
Despite Tuesday’s rally, EUR/USD remains trapped under last week’s peak bids just north of 1.10000. Bullish momentum is set to continue dragging intraday price action higher, but technical weakness remains a real risk as Fiber struggles to develop long-term wheels above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0820.
EUR/USD daily chart
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