EUR/USD cycles familiar levels as NFP jobs dump looms ahead

■  EUR/USD spun in place on Wednesday after Fed met expectations.

■  The Fed continues to wait for signs of easing inflation, but looking hopeful.

■  Friday’s US NFP to have extra weight after Fed flags labor data as key to rate cuts.

EUR/USD churned near key technical levels on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady for one last meeting as markets had broadly anticipated. The slow race to September’s Fed rate call kicks off on Friday with the latest print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for July.

EU data remains limited for the back half of the trading week, leaving investors to focus squarely on upcoming US NFP figures. Median market forecasts are hoping for a continued easing in the US jobs market, calling for net job additions of 175K in July, down from the previous print of 206K.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell outlined the specific conditions required for the Fed to implement a rate cut in September. These include ongoing improvements in inflation trends and the US labor market remaining stable or showing further weakening. This provides the markets with a clear benchmark for the upcoming important US economic data releases. The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report, expected to be released on Friday, is anticipated to meet at least one of the Fed's criteria, as it is projected to show a further decrease in job additions for July.

EUR/USD technical outlook

Fiber bids are hung up on the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0818, and middling price action has EUR/USD grinding into a fresh technical middle just north of the 200-day EMA at 1.0796.

The pair is still down from the last swing high that fell just short of 1.0950, but downside momentum is getting squeezed out by a price floor from long-term technical averages. Bidders are set for another attempt to push Fiber back into the high end as a choppy descending channel keeps bullish momentum crimped.

EUR/USD daily chart