EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady around 1.1625 area; not out of the woods yet

• EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on last week’s modest bounce from a multi-year low.

• Trade jitters cap the upside for the EUR, though subdued USD demand lends support.

• The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for further depreciation.

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian session. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1625 area, nearly unchanged for the day, amid mixed cues. The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path keeps the US Dollar (USD) on the defensive. However, reports that US President Donald Trump was considering a 15% to 20% levy on the European Union, even if a trade deal is reached, act as a headwind for the EUR and the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, last week's failure near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) support turned hurdle on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for the EUR/USD bears. However, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 1.1560 , or the multi-week low, below which spot prices could weaken to the 1.1500 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 1.1455-1.1450 zone before spot prices eventually drop to the 1.1400 round figure.

On the flip side, Friday's swing high, around the 1.1670 area, could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 1.1700 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a near-term short-covering rally and lift the EUR/USD pair to the 1.1740-1.1745 intermediate hurdle en route to the 1.1800 round figure. The recovery momentum could extend further towards the 1.1830 area, or the highest level since September 2021 touched earlier this month, and the 1.1900 mark.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart