EUR/USD Price Forecast: Retakes 1.0800 mark; seems vulnerable while below 23.6% Fibo.
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EUR/USD stages a modest recovery from over a two-week low touched the previous day.
The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and supports prospects for deeper losses.
A sustained move beyond the overnight swing high is needed to negate the negative bias.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak to over a two-week low, around the 1.0770 area touched the previous day. Spot prices reclaim the 1.0800 mark amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown and close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the late February low was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the recent pullback from the year-to-date top touched earlier this week and a further downfall toward the 1.0725 confluence. The latter comprises the 38.2% Fibo. level and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which, in turn, should act as a strong base for the EUR/USD pair amid mixed oscillators on the daily chart.
A convincing break below, however, will suggest that spot prices have topped out near the 1.0955 region and pave the way for deeper losses. The subsequent downfall could drag the EUR/USD pair below the 1.0700 round figure, towards the next relevant support near the 1.0655 area (50% Fibo.) en route to the sub-1.0600 levels, or the 61.8% Fibo. Some follow-through selling might then shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and expose the 100-day SMA, around the 1.0500 psychological mark, which also nears the 78.6% Fibo. level.
On the flip side, the overnight swing high, around the 1.0855 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a bout of a short-covering move could allow the EUR/USD pair to reclaim the 1.0900 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards retesting the multi-month peak, around the 1.0955 region, before spot prices eventually climb to the 1.1000 psychological mark for the first time since early October 2024.
EUR/USD daily chart
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