EUR/USD flattens on holiday-thinned Monday

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• EUR/USD churned close to flat near the 1.0500 handle.

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• European data remains mostly tepid this week, Fed minutes loom ahead.

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• US PMI activity results are also due this week, but not until Friday.

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EUR/USD swamped out at the 1.0500 handle on Monday, snapping a four-day win streak as Fiber bulls re-think their position. Money markets were constrained by a notable lack of order flow during the US market session, with most major US exchanges dark for the President’s Day holiday. FX markets will return to the fold in force on Tuesday, but Euro bidders may not find much momentum with a thin data docket.

European economic sentiment survey results for both Germany and the wider European region are due early Tuesday, but consumers tend to be reactionary and behind the curve on economic factors, so market impact will likely remain limited. Regardless, the February’s figures are expected to improve from January’s print.

The key US data print this week will be the upcoming Meeting Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest rate call, due on Wednesday. US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results are also due this week, but not until Friday.

EUR/USD price forecast

EUR/USD failed to climb over 1.0500 again on Monday, churning just beneath the key technical level as bidders risk running out of gas. Technical oscillators including the Stochastic indicator are flashing warning signs of an overbought technical stance, though confirmation of a turnaround into the low side have yet to materialize.

The pair is trading just north of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0432, and a firm technical floor appears to be priced in near 1.0300.

EUR/USD daily chart