On Thursday (August 24th), the release of initial jobless claims and July durable goods orders data from the United States had mixed results, initially suppressing the rebound in gold.
The data showed that preliminary durable goods orders for July in the US fell by 5.2% compared to the previous month, marking the largest decline since April 2020, with an estimated decline of 4.0%. The previous value had risen by 4.6%.
It is worth mentioning that the number of initial jobless claims reported by the US Department of Labor dropped to its lowest level in three weeks, indicating a continued tight labor market. The data revealed that 230,000 initial jobless claims were recorded for the week ending August 19th, lower than the market's expectation of 240,000 and the previous value of 239,000. Additionally, the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 12th was 1.702 million, also below the market's expectation of 1.708 million and the previous value of 1.716 million.
Following the release of the above data, the US dollar index briefly surged to 103.94, causing gold to decline to 1911.
In fact, despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by a cumulative 525 basis points since March 2022, the labor market performance remains robust, coupled with a decline in inflation. The market holds a generally optimistic outlook for the US economy, which weakens the safe-haven sentiment that previously supported gold in the medium to long term.
Looking back at this short-term rebound in gold, its main cause was the impact of falling yields on the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds. However, as mentioned earlier, the market holds a generally optimistic outlook for the US economy, which will support the US dollar, making it difficult for the short-term rebound in gold to sustain.
From a technical perspective, the confirmation of the short-term rebound in gold occurred on Wednesday (August 23rd), and it is currently operating within an ascending channel. The key resistance level for gold at present is 1923, with support levels at 1915 and then 1910.
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