Bitcoin Is Getting Boring, and That's the Bull Case, Says Market Analyst James Check
Bitcoin (BTC) turning into a boring asset is its strongest bull case, according to Checkonchain founder James Check. Its price swings have already shrunk to levels last seen in summer 2023.
Wall Street, however, still treats volatility as the main obstacle. JPMorgan now publishes a 10-year Bitcoin return forecast yet withholds any portfolio allocation, keeping institutional demand on the sidelines.
Bitcoin’s Quietest Stretch in Years Tells a Bigger Story
Check, a former Glassnode analyst, made the case on the Honest Money Show on October 27. He argued that Bitcoin has left its speculative youth behind.
“…it’s going to be normal, guys. That is the most bullish thing that could possibly happen to Bitcoin.”
Glassnode data backs the observation. Bitcoin’s 1-month realized volatility, a gauge of how sharply prices moved over 30 days, fell to 25.2%.
According to the firm, Bitcoin has traded more calmly on only about 5% of days since 2015.
The chart also shows the normal range narrowing. The yearly volatility band has dropped from roughly 55–78% in mid-2022 to about 30–52%.
Bitcoin boring, 1-month realized volatility back to summer 2023 levels / Source: Glassnode
A Shallower Bear Market Points the Same Way
The latest drawdown fits the pattern. Bitcoin fell about 54% from its $126,000 peak in October 2025 to $58,379 on June 30.
| Bear market | Peak-to-trough drawdown |
|---|---|
| 2018 | -84% |
| 2022 | -77% |
| 2025–2026 | -54% |
Check links the higher floor to falling existential risk. He said the market bottomed near $60,000 rather than $40,000 because fewer investors expect Bitcoin to fail.
BloFin Research head Edward Wu has also argued that future Bitcoin crashes could become less severe.
Is Boring Bitcoin the Asset Wall Street Is Waiting For?
Check pointed to JPMorgan as proof of how far Bitcoin has come.
JPMorgan Asset Management’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA), its annual 10-to-15-year outlook, added Bitcoin on October 19. The bank’s first Bitcoin return range projects 10% a year, ahead of US large caps at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.
Still, JPMorgan excluded Bitcoin from its model portfolios. It cited unstable correlations and 55% historical volatility, roughly triple that of stocks and gold.
The bank said Bitcoin’s role could grow if volatility falls and correlations stabilize. Glassnode’s latest reading is a short-term measure, but it sits below half of that long-run assumption.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, a BeInCrypto Expert Council member, argued that JPMorgan’s volatility input is too high.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade. pic.twitter.com/TuOuH51l3c
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026
Check believes even a 2% average allocation across model portfolios would draw an enormous pool of capital into Bitcoin.
The calm carries risks, however. Glassnode noted that long-term holders who bought between $85,000 and $118,000 may sell into any recovery toward $85,000.
Check expects the quiet grind to last until Bitcoin clears $100,000. Above that level, he sees headlines pulling speculative money back in and ending the boring phase.
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