Bitcoin Price Forecast: Drops Below $80,000 in Fifth Straight Loss, May Test $75,000 as FOMC Meeting Approaches

TradingKey - Bitcoin falls below the $80,000 mark as the October FOMC decision approaches, threatening a further dip toward $75,000.

On October 26, Bitcoin (BTC) again lost the key psychological mark of $80,000 during intraday trading today after five consecutive trading days of sell-offs, dropping to a low of $79,360. As two major risk events approach this week—the Federal Reserve's (Fed) October FOMC rate decision meeting and the earnings week for mega-cap U.S. tech stocks—will Bitcoin's price seek the core support zone of $75,000–$76,000 on the downside?

Previously, higher-than-expected U.S. September CPI and PPI data significantly weakened market bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, and even briefly boosted expectations of a rate hike. Currently, the market estimates a high 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October. The high-interest-rate environment has substantially raised the holding cost of non-yielding assets, driving global macro funds to heavily liquidate high-beta digital assets on the eve of the FOMC meeting, placing downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

This week, tech giants including Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), SanDisk (SNDK), and Intel (INTC) are set to release their earnings. Against the backdrop of Tesla's (TSLA) Q3 operating profit plunging 56% and Meta's (META) capital expenditure expansion triggering a sharp stock sell-off, global hedge funds and institutional capital chose to dump high-risk assets before earnings announcements, leaving the crypto market to bear the brunt of capital outflows.

In addition, Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, will also release its earnings report this Thursday (October 29). As the leader of U.S. equity Bitcoin treasuries, Strategy's earnings performance directly impacts the confidence of Metaplanet, Strive, and other listed companies preparing to build BTC treasuries. If Strategy (MSTR) demonstrates strong balance sheet resilience during a crypto market downturn, it will encourage more traditional institutions to buy the dip; otherwise, it will further dent bullish confidence.

This Wednesday, if the FOMC meeting keeps interest rates unchanged as expected, Bitcoin's defensive line will move downward to directly test $75,000–$76,200, where the 100-day moving average and the breakout platform initiated in early September converge. If there is an unexpected rate cut or a dovish signal released, the likelihood of Bitcoin returning above $80,000 is extremely high, turning the downward trend around and laying the foundation for a run at the $90,000 mark by the end of the year.

Bitcoin price chart, Source: TradingView

Before the FOMC meeting statement, Big Tech earnings reports, and Strategy's earnings results land, market implied volatility (IV) will remain elevated. Bitcoin's price may experience sharp swings in both directions, posing an extremely high risk of liquidations. Investors are advised to reduce leverage or primarily monitor the spot market.