
Author Irene Q.20 hours ago
December Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.

Author Irene Q.Oct 23, Fri
Brent's December contract settled at $113.17 on October 22, up 4.00% and the highest close since May 4, after Saudi Arabia restricted refined-product shipments. The same session's EIA report showed crude stocks down 3.06 million barrels and gasoline down 2.95 million — but distillates built 1.68 million. That single line decides whether $113 holds: here are the data, the 108.8 / 114.0 / 119.3 levels and the two scenarios.

Author Irene Q.Oct 19, Mon
Brent crude traded near $108.06 on Monday (-1.71%), pulling back from last week's $110 high after Washington moved to ease restrictions on Russian oil flows. WTI hovered around $101 before dipping below $99. The retreat is real, but so is the supply-risk premium: Hormuz shipping disruptions, attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and strikes on Russian refineries remain live. Here are the three numbers, the transmission chain and the levels that matter.