Australian Dollar breaks below 100-day SMA after hot US inflation data

• AUD/USD slips to 0.7020 after rejection at key moving averages.
• Break below 100-day SMA at 0.7032 reinforces bearish technical outlook.
• Strong US GDP and elevated Core PCE inflation pressure Aussie buyers.

The Australian Dollar weakens against the US Dollar on Thursday after encountering a key resistance confluence at the 50- and 200-day SMAs, while strong US data reaffirmed the economy’s strength, which could increase the chances of higher interest rates. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7020.

AUD/USD retreats from the 50- and 200-day SMA confluence, with a break below 0.7032 signaling further downside

Wall Street ended the session in the red, reflecting a sour market mood. US data revealed that the economy grew 3.4% YoY in Q3 2026, exceeding forecasts and prior readings of 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively. At the same time, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE, increased by 3.1% in September, as expected, up from 3% in the prior month.

The data tranche included Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 24, which dipped from 195K to 194K, below forecasts of a rise to 199K.

On the data, AUD/USD extended its losses below the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, opening the door to further downside. Worth noting that investors had trimmed their Fed hawkish bets compared to Wednesday. At the time of writing, the odds are 76% down from 84% a day ago, revealed Prime Terminal.

This happened amid rising hopes of diplomatic progress in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, fell by about 0.13% to $102.71 as the Asian session is underway.

US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield retreating 6.5 basis points to 4.907%. In part due to the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh lack of forward guidance, with him focused mostly on operations rather than monetary policy.

Warsh said that the appropriate number of meetings for the FOMC is eight, but in 2027 there would be seven monetary policy decisions, followed by six in 2028.

In Australia, Thursday’s schedule was empty, except for RBA Governor Bullock speech, in which she said that inflation is far too high, recognising that CPI is consistent with upside inflation risks.

On Friday, the Aussie’s docket will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Q3 on an annual basis. In the previous quarter, the reading was 3.6%. The US calendar will feature a speech by San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7024, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the latest reading of the simple moving average triple at 0.7069. The pair is slipping back toward the lower end of the recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.33 sits just above neutral, hinting at modest, rather than decisive, upside momentum amid prevailing downside structural pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the clustered 50/100/200-period simple moving averages around 0.7069, followed by the horizontal barrier near 0.7198, with the broader downward trend line from 0.8015 reinforcing a cap on rallies at higher levels. On the downside, price action is underpinned by a series of upward-sloping support trend lines drawn from the 0.68–0.69 area, suggesting that while the bias stays bearish below the moving averages, dips into this rising band would likely attract buying interest before any deeper deterioration in the daily structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)