Where Will Intuitive Surgical Be in 10 Years? Hint: Its da Vinci 5 Installed Base Just Topped 2,000

Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) is having a terrible year. The company's shares are down 21% to date, as of writing, amid somewhat mixed financial results. Also, over the past 18 months, the company has faced margin pressure, partly due to steeper tariffs. That said, there are some reasons to be excited about Intuitive Surgical's future. One of them is the da Vinci 5, the latest version of its famous robotic-assisted surgery (RAS) device.

The da Vinci 5 has become popular since it earned regulatory clearance in 2024, and it recently exceeded an installed base of 2,000 devices. Could this device help Intuitive Surgical bounce back and perform well over the next decade?

Image source: Intuitive Surgical.

The da Vinci 5's rapid commercial ramp-up

According to Intuitive Surgical, the da Vinci 5 introduced more than 150 enhancements over its predecessor. Some of the most notable include significantly more computing power, improved imaging to give surgeons better visualization of anatomical structures, and Force Feedback Technology, which allows physicians to better gauge the force they are exerting on patient tissue and adjust accordingly, potentially reducing tissue damage during procedures.

These and other features have made the da Vinci 5 a hit. In the third quarter, Intuitive Surgical placed 546 systems, an increase of 28% year over year.

Da Vinci 5 systems accounted for 315 total placements, compared to 240 in the year-ago period. Intuitive Surgical now has a da Vinci system installed base of 12,094, up 12% year over year -- and more than 2,000 of them are of the latest da Vinci 5. Intuitive Surgical first launched its famous robotic surgery device in 2000. Yet, just about two years after launch, the latest version of it already accounts for over 16.5% of its total installed base. That's impressive.

A vast addressable market

Over the next 10 years, we should see rising demand for robotic surgery. Here are two reasons why. First, the market is currently underpenetrated. According to some estimates, fewer than 8% of eligible soft tissue procedures are performed robotically. This number should rise in the long run, since the minimally invasive procedures enabled by robotic devices offer significant advantages, such as smaller incisions, reduced bleeding and scarring, and shorter hospital stays.

Second, the world's population will age over the next 10 years. Since older people are more likely to need many of the surgeries for which the da Vinci system is indicated, this could also be a secular tailwind for the RAS market. Intuitive Surgical is already the industry leader, but the da Vinci 5 could help the medical device company extend its lead.

The device's features, particularly the Force Feedback Technology, could improve surgeons' adoption and lead to higher procedure volume -- and more instrument and accessory sales -- than the healthcare leader would have otherwise. Intuitive Surgical is also looking to make the da Vinci 5 the cornerstone of its strategy within a market it has yet to enter: Telesurgery.

Surgeons' ability to perform surgeries remotely with the da Vinci 5 could boost Intuitive Surgical's revenue by expanding access to robotic surgery, encouraging more hospitals to purchase the da Vinci system, increasing procedure volume and instrument and accessory sales, and perhaps creating new revenue streams from software and connectivity services.

Management has targeted the first half of 2028 for telesurgery clearance. Now, Intuitive Surgical could remain somewhat volatile in the short run as it navigates recent headwinds. However, the company boasts a massive addressable market that could enable it to bounce back and perform well over the long run.

And after the beating the stock took this year, now may be a great time for investors to initiate a position. Holding onto the stock for the next decade could lead to excellent returns.

Prosper Junior Bakiny has positions in Intuitive Surgical. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intuitive Surgical. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $520 calls on Intuitive Surgical and short January 2028 $530 calls on Intuitive Surgical. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.