SoFi Planned for 2 Rate Cuts This Year and Got a Rate Hike. It Raised Its Guidance Anyway.

Back in January, SoFi (NASDAQ: SOFI) predicted its adjusted net revenue would grow 30% with an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin of 34% in 2026. It based that rosy outlook on the assumption of two rate cuts from the Fed.

SoFi reiterated that guidance in the first quarter of 2026, and raised it in the second quarter to 32%-35% adjusted net revenue growth with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33%-34%. But in September, the Fed raised its benchmark rates for the first time in three years.

Image source: Getty Images

That rate hike weighed on SoFi's stock, as it compressed the value of its older loans and throttled demand for newer loans. Yet in its third-quarter report on Oct. 27, SoFi raised its guidance again to 40% adjusted revenue growth and a 33% adjusted EBITDA margin. Let's see why it's still growing in this challenging market, and if its stock is worth buying today.

SoFi's strengths and offsetting its weaknesses

SoFi is a "one-stop digital shop" for personal loans, auto loans, mortgages, credit cards, insurance plans, estate planning services, and stock and crypto trading services. As a digital-native platform, it attracted millions of younger customers and expanded faster than brick-and-mortar banks. It also acquired the digital payment processing company Galileo in 2020 and launched its own digital bank after receiving a U.S. bank charter in 2022.

In the third quarter of 2026, SoFi's total members grew 35% year over year to 17.1 million, while its total products in use rose 44% to 26.7 million. Over the past year, its member growth has remained remarkably consistent as its product and revenue growth accelerated.

Data source: SoFi. YOY = Year-over-year.

SoFi's growth in bank deposits, student and personal loans, and rising capital-light, fee-based revenues offset the macro headwinds and the Fed's rate hike. As a chartered bank, it funds most of its own loans rather than relying on expensive third-party warehouse credit lines. That self-reliance reduced its cost of funds and boosted its net interest margins over the past year.

Its Loan Platform, which originates loans for other parties for a fee without taking on the actual risks, also expanded and reduced its dependence on its own balance-sheet lending. Its existing members have also cross-adopted more than half of its new products -- which has boosted its revenue per member and increased the stickiness of its ecosystem. Moreover, Galileo -- which operates separately from SoFi's core business -- hosts another 140 million accounts.

For 2027, SoFi expects its adjusted net revenue to rise 27%, and its adjusted EBITDA margin to expand to 35%. With an enterprise value of $17.8 billion, it still looks remarkably undervalued at nine times next year's adjusted EBITDA. Therefore, it's worth buying today before it's revalued as a high-growth fintech stock again.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.