If You'd Held VTI Through Every Recession Since 2001, Here's Exactly How Much You'd Have Today

Source Motley_fool

Key Points

  • There have been three recessions and four bear markets over the past 25 years.

  • The Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF has averaged a nearly 10% annualized return since then.

  • A $10,000 investment in VTI would have turned into $215,000 today.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF ›

Since 2000, there have been three recessions in the United States -- the Dotcom recession from March to November 2001, the Great Recession from December 2007 through June 2009, and the COVID recession that started in February 2020.

There have also been four bear markets since 2000 -- from 2000 to 2002, from 2007 to 2009, during the COVID outbreak in 2020, and in 2022.

Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »

Through those shocks, which mostly align with one another, markets have endured and grown. There is no better gauge of that, perhaps, than the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT: VTI).

Four people seated at a table cheering and smiling.

Image source: Getty Images.

This ETF tracks the Morningstar U.S. Total Market Index, which measures the performance of the entire U.S. equity market, spanning mega-, large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks.

So, with some 3,500 holdings, this ETF tracks the entire market and has done so since it launched in 2001.

VTI versus the S&P 500

So, how has the ETF performed over the years? Since its inception on May 24, 2001, the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF has had an average annualized total return of 9.6%.

That's actually better than the S&P 500 over that same time period, as the chart below shows.

VTI Chart

VTI data by YCharts

So, through all the recessions and bear markets over the past 25 years, the total market still returned almost 10% per year.

If you had invested $10,000 in VTI 25 years ago, just a few months after the ETF launched, that investment would have grown to about $215,000 today, assuming a 9.6% annual return and a $ 100-per-month contribution.

That really drives home the importance of staying invested, because no matter what the economy or markets throw at us, the U.S. stock market not only endures, but grows over time.

Should you buy stock in Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF right now?

Before you buy stock in Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $355,124!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,296,254!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 901% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 210% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of October 26, 2026.

Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bank of America Sets a New Target For Gold Price By the End of 2026Bank of America (BofA) expects gold below $4,000 over the next three months. The bank forecasts an average of $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter.Gold traded around $4,100 on Wednesday after hotter
Author  FXStreet
Oct 15, Thu
Bank of America (BofA) expects gold below $4,000 over the next three months. The bank forecasts an average of $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter.Gold traded around $4,100 on Wednesday after hotter
placeholder
Weekly Market Wrap: Meta’s $145 billion AI bill hit chips — as Brent surged past $116Meta’s US$145 billion AI spending plan puts chip stocks in focus as Brent crude surges past US$116. Explore this week’s key market moves, investor concerns and what Australian traders should watch next.
Author  Mark Garro
10 hours ago
Meta’s US$145 billion AI spending plan puts chip stocks in focus as Brent crude surges past US$116. Explore this week’s key market moves, investor concerns and what Australian traders should watch next.
placeholder
3 Big Tech Earnings Reports to Watch as AI Bills Keep GrowingBig tech earnings arrive this week, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all releasing quarterly reports.In their latest quarters, Google Cloud grew 82%, Azure 42%, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) 37%,
Author  Beincrypto
10 hours ago
Big tech earnings arrive this week, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all releasing quarterly reports.In their latest quarters, Google Cloud grew 82%, Azure 42%, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) 37%,
placeholder
Fed Week Puts Stocks, Bitcoin, and DXY on Collision Course Before $11 Billion ExpiryOne week could decide what your stocks, your Bitcoin (BTC), and your dollars are worth by Christmas. From Wednesday to Friday, the Federal Reserve meets, inflation data lands, and $11 billion in Bitco
Author  Beincrypto
10 hours ago
One week could decide what your stocks, your Bitcoin (BTC), and your dollars are worth by Christmas. From Wednesday to Friday, the Federal Reserve meets, inflation data lands, and $11 billion in Bitco
placeholder
Fed Rate Decision This Week: Will the US Dollar Strengthen and Gold Prices Fall? (26 October 2026)Fed decision, US inflation and Middle East tensions take centre stage. Explore the US dollar, gold and AUD/USD outlook for Australian traders.
Author  Mitrade Team
3 hours ago
Fed decision, US inflation and Middle East tensions take centre stage. Explore the US dollar, gold and AUD/USD outlook for Australian traders.
goTop
quote