Cleveland-Cliffs: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors
Key Points
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA more than doubled sequentially to $612 million.
Steel contract renewals are projected to generate $1 billion in EBITDA.
Postponing the blast furnace reline preserves 500,000 net tons of output.
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On its third-quarter 2026 earnings call, held on Oct. 19, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) announced that third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) more than doubled sequentially to $612 million. Price realization and shipment volumes both expanded as domestic trade protections restricted foreign imports. Management is translating this pricing power into multiyear supply contracts that lock in cash flow. Three key takeaways from the call reveal how management's positioning the business for long-term value creation.
1. Contract Renewals Are Driving $1 Billion in Earnings Expansion
Management secured renewed multiyear steel supply agreements that increase contracted customer volumes while reducing index discounts. This pricing power across domestic customer accounts creates a direct path toward $1 billion in incremental EBITDA.
In aggregate, the improvements should generate more than $1 billion of year over year EBITDA improvement.
-- C. Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
2. Furnace Reline Postponement Preserves 500,000 Tons of Production
Deploying targeted maintenance enabled management to delay the Burns Harbor C-blast furnace rebuild from 2027 to April 2028. Postponing the 90-day maintenance outage preserves 500,000 net tons of high-margin production capacity during a period of elevated domestic steel demand.
By safely pushing out the reline, we can capitalize on a highly favorable commercial environment preserve valuable production capacity during a period of strong demand and pricing, and enhanced cash generation while maintaining operational reliability.
-- Celso L. Goncalves Jr., President and Chief Financial Officer
3. Free Cash Flow Priority Remains Debt Paydown Below Target Leverage
Asset sale proceeds expected in the fourth quarter and expanding operating cash flow will go directly toward reducing total outstanding debt. Management doesn't plan to stop debt reduction once it reaches its target ratio of 2x to 2.5x leverage.
Paying down debt will remain our number one allocation of free cash flow even after we have reached that leverage target.
-- Celso L. Goncalves Jr., President and Chief Financial Officer
Looking Ahead
Steel prices are climbing across North America as trade enforcement reduces import competition, and management isn't wasting capacity on uncommitted volume. The company holds structural advantages in domestic iron ore self-sufficiency, specialized automotive steel capability, and flexible furnace capacity. Management's watching contract renewal execution, furnace maintenance timing, and balance sheet debt reduction.
The slide deck that we released this morning shows the realistic path to more than $4 billion of EBITDA in 2027, under market conditions similar to those that we experienced this past quarter.
-- Celso L. Goncalves Jr., President and Chief Financial Officer
Contractual momentum and disciplined capital allocation provide clear visibility into multiyear cash generation.
We are entering 2027 with momentum that continues to build, not fade.
-- Celso L. Goncalves Jr., President and Chief Financial Officer
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