CoreWeave may face higher borrowing costs when it refinances; Gartner anticipates 80% of neoclouds will go under by 2030, and that's all good news for Iren.
The multi-gigawatt thesis remains solid, but a lack of recent press releases has spooked some investors who want flashy news.
Recent results from chipmakers imply that hyperscalers are still ramping up their spending. That may be the catalyst Iren needs to get back on track.
Iren (NASDAQ: IREN) is the one artificial intelligence (AI) stock I would buy through the next bubble scare. I'm doing it right now, and if Iren stays at such a low price, I will intensify my buying. The company has several bullish catalysts, and certain "bearish" claims about Iren and the neocloud industry are actually quite bullish for Iren on closer inspection.
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Almost all the bearish concerns people bring up about Iren are actually bullish. First, Gartner released research that projected 80% of neoclouds ceasing independent operations by 2030 while casting doubts about AI infrastructure spending.
However, Iren remains one of the top neocloud providers and has a pristine balance sheet. If 80% of neocloud providers are out of business by 2030, Iren's capacity will become much more valuable due to supply constraints.
Second, CoreWeave's (NASDAQ: CRWV) corporate bonds reached yields of 15%, causing investors to worry about how expensive it would be for neoclouds to borrow money in the future. However, CoreWeave has an elevated rate because its balance sheet is under duress. CoreWeave has a current ratio of 0.46 and will need to refinance some of its debt. Iren has a much more favorable current ratio of 3.55.
Their balance sheets are in different leagues. If costs rise for neoclouds, it's yet another barrier that delays or shuts down competitors. That scenario would let Iren charge higher prices for its megawatts. Less supply also gives Iren more negotiating power, which can translate into higher prepayments that reduce dilution or make it unnecessary in the near future. Iren can also obtain low-APR capital through GPU financing and by using its constructed data centers as collateral.
Iren hasn't offered investors much material since it reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings at the end of August. Since then, the company has only issued one press release at the start of September detailing that its 2-gigawatt Sweetwater Hub was included as Base Load in ERCOT Batch Zero. It's a useful milestone that moves Iren a little closer to energizing the site, but nothing groundbreaking.
The lack of news also means nothing about the stock has changed. Iren still has a 5.8-gigawatt pipeline, and AI demand is still surging. The company is leading discussions for approximately $25 million per megawatt, and customer prepayments have been covering 45% to 55% of GPU capital expenditures.
Iren still expects to deliver 300 megawatts by 2026 and to have a total of 800 megawatts delivered by the end of 2027. The company also has undisclosed sites that it is not counting toward its publicly announced multi-gigawatt pipeline. Iren only includes sites in its portfolio after securing "relevant grid connection agreements."
The long-term catalysts are still intact. Iren is still targeting $4 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year, and its November earnings report will offer more updates.
A few key earnings reports will arrive before the end of October, indicating the overall shape of AI spending. Meta Platforms and Tesla will report on the 21st, while Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon report their results one week after.
While those earnings haven't come out yet, chipmakers offer some clues. Micron delivered exceptional results in its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter while telling investors that it expects an even stronger fiscal 2027. Taiwan Semiconductor cited "extremely robust demand" continuing for its chips after announcing 41.2% year-over-year revenue growth in its third quarter.
These results suggest that tech companies are still spending heavily on artificial intelligence and may ramp up capex in 2027. A shortage of AI data centers has been a major bottleneck, and as spending continues to increase, more capital should flow into Iren's coffers. Investors will receive the verdict from these hyperscalers by the end of the month, while Iren will report its earnings shortly after.
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Marc Guberti has positions in Iren. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Gartner. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.