Berkshire Hathaway and Mastercard Don't Need AI to Keep Growing. Both Look Worth Owning Through 2030.

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKA)(NYSE:BRKB) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA) aren't chipmakers or cloud-computing businesses. But both are growing their profits at a double-digit pace.

Berkshire's four big operating units earned 11% more in the first half of 2026 than in the same period of 2025. And Mastercard's second-quarter earnings per share climbed 22% from a year earlier.

For a stock meant to be held through 2030, I think this matters. If spending on artificial intelligence (AI) slows over the next four years, neither company loses its main driver of growth.

That doesn't mean there's no exposure. Berkshire's energy arm sells power to data centers, for example. But the earnings behind both stocks mainly come from elsewhere.

Image source: Mastercard.

Berkshire Hathaway's businesses are doing the growing

Berkshire is the sort of stock I'd want to hold through 2030 because its earnings come from dozens of everyday businesses that grow with the economy, not with one technology.

Its insurance underwriting, BNSF railroad, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and manufacturing, service and retailing businesses together earned around $16.1 billion after tax in the first half of 2026, 11% more than the year before. Manufacturing, service and retailing led with around $7.7 billion, up 15%. BNSF's earnings gained 10%, helped by second-quarter freight volume that grew almost 7%. And the energy business grew 11%.

The energy business is where Berkshire does touch AI. CEO Greg Abel said on CNBC in September that data centers made up about 8% of the load at its Iowa utility last year. But energy accounted for only about 12% of those four groups' earnings in the first half. Simply put, data-center demand is a small part of a segment that's itself a small part of Berkshire.

Interest on Berkshire's cash pile is the weaker piece, as lower short-term interest rates cut its insurers' interest and other investment income 12% from the first half of 2025. Then again, the $365 billion in cash and Treasury bills Berkshire had at the end of June is also what it could spend if an AI slowdown pulled stock prices down.

For the four quarters through June, operating earnings were around $48 billion, above the $47.4 billion Berkshire made in 2024 before a slip in 2025. At around $511 a Class B share as I write this, the stock trades at about 23 times those operating earnings. That's not a bargain, but I think it's a fair price for earnings so reliable.

A fee on the world's spending

Mastercard's case for holding through 2030 is even simpler. Its network takes a small fee on a huge and growing volume of payments.

Mastercard's net revenue rose 16% in 2025, to around $32.8 billion, and second-quarter 2026 net revenue was still up 14% year over year. Gross dollar volume (the total value of purchases and cash withdrawals on its cards) increased 8% on a local-currency basis to $2.9 trillion in the quarter. Cross-border assessments, the fees Mastercard charges when a card is used outside the country where it was issued, jumped 21% to around $3.5 billion.

Cross-border growth has been easing. Cross-border volume rose 12% on a local-currency basis in the second quarter, down from 15% for 2025 and 18% in 2024. But the slowdown has been gradual. And value-added services (the fraud-prevention, data, and authentication tools Mastercard sells on top of its network) grew 20% to around $3.8 billion, or about 41% of revenue.

Notably, Mastercard has little riding on a building boom of its own. It spent around $813 million on capital expenditures (including capitalized software) in the first half of 2026, below 5% of revenue, while buying back about $8.9 billion of its shares.

The stock, though, isn't cheap. At around $575 as I write, Mastercard trades at about 32 times earnings, well above the 23 times operating earnings Berkshire fetches.

What if AI spending slows?

Neither stock is safe from a recession. Berkshire's railroad and manufacturers need a healthy economy, and so does Mastercard's payment volume.

But a slowdown in AI spending alone shouldn't take away what drives either company's earnings. Berkshire still collects insurance premiums and carries freight. Mastercard still takes its fee on everyday purchases.

Mastercard costs more, but it's growing faster. Berkshire is the cheaper stock, with a cash pile that lets it buy if prices drop.

I think both are worth considering for a portfolio meant to last through 2030 -- maybe bought bit by bit, given Mastercard's premium price.

Daniel Sparks and his clients have positions in Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway and Mastercard. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.