Bitcoin Price Flashes a Hidden Uptrend Signal Amid One 96% Problem
Bitcoin (BTC) price trades near $82,300, still up about 28% over three months after this week’s drop.
A hidden momentum signal on the daily chart suggests the uptrend can survive. The catch is that buying from long-term holders has dropped 96%.
A Hidden Signal Says the Uptrend Is Still Alive
Between September 2 and October 8, Bitcoin made a higher low on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying momentum on a 0 to 100 scale, slid from about 65 to 47, a lower low.
That mix is called a hidden bullish divergence. It shows up inside uptrends and suggests a dip has cooled momentum without breaking the trend.
Selling volume backs the read. Red volume bars have grown since October 6, but the October 8 bar was still about 18% smaller than the October 2 peak. Sellers are pushing, yet with less force than a week earlier.
So why did momentum fall harder than price? The buyers may explain it.
Fading Holder Buying Explains the Momentum Drop
Hodler Net Position Change, a Glassnode metric that tracks the monthly change in coins held by long-term holders, peaked at 25,734 BTC on September 20. By October 8, it had dropped 96% to 1,051 BTC, its weakest positive reading in three months.
Holders are still adding, but barely. With selling below its October 2 peak and buyers thinning, price can hold a higher low while momentum drains.
Holder buying faded like this in late July, and the metric stayed negative from August 2 to August 30 as long-term holders sold into August’s rally. Yet Bitcoin still rose 24% that month. Spot ETFs bought $3.04 billion during a nine-day inflow streak from August 17 to 27, possibly absorbing that supply.
This time, funds pulled $731 million on October 7 and 8, per SoSoValue flow data, during this week’s crypto sell-off. A repeat of August needs fund buying to return or holders to step back in.
The price chart shows where that could happen.
Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide the Signal
Bitcoin price has trended higher since bouncing from $75,041 on September 15. The pullback found a floor at $80,383 on October 8, the higher low behind the divergence, and has since rebounded.
Holder buying peaked around September 20 and 21, as price ran above the $86,616 mark. That zone now sits just under $88,086, the 0.618 Fibonacci level where rebounds often stall, about 7% above the current price.
A daily close above $83,325 is the first step. Reclaiming $88,086 could draw holders back. A drop under $80,383 would break the higher low and cancel the divergence, putting $75,041 back in play.
Analyst’s View: The divergence says the uptrend still has room, but holders and funds are both quiet. A daily close above $88,086 could bring both back, while losing $80,383 would expose $75,041.
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