Prediction: SpaceX Stock Won't Get Full Credit for Starship Until It Can Reuse the Whole Rocket

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) finally got Starship to orbit. On Sept. 28, on its 14th test flight, the huge rocket's upper stage reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites.

Yet the growth stock closed around 2% lower that day.

I don't think the market missed anything. Reaching orbit showed Starship can deliver satellites. But both halves of the rocket ended the flight in the ocean, and the economics SpaceX has promised rest on getting them back and flying them again. That test is still ahead, and it's the one more likely to change SpaceX's numbers.

Image source: Getty Images.

Both stages ended in the ocean

The Super Heavy booster splashed down in the Gulf, where its flight termination system was triggered as a planned safety demonstration. The ship splashed down in the northern Pacific after controllers shortened its time in orbit because one of its engines had shut down early.

But a rocket used up on every launch isn't the vehicle SpaceX has been describing to investors.

Bret Johnsen, SpaceX's chief financial officer, said in August that Starship aims to quadruple payload capacity and cut launch costs tenfold compared to Falcon 9. The company's initial public offering (IPO) prospectus is just as clear about how. It says having reusable first and second stages is "critical to reducing launch costs and increasing launch cadence."

The booster half is partly proven: SpaceX has caught Super Heavy boosters with its launch tower on three past test flights and reflown two of them. It's never caught a ship.

Starlink pays for the launches

I'd say cheaper launches could help Starlink more than the launch business. Notably, SpaceX books no revenue from launching its own satellites. Instead, these launch costs are added to the satellites' cost on the balance sheet and then expensed as depreciation in the connectivity segment.

And this expense keeps rising. In the second quarter of 2026, connectivity depreciation and amortization was $805 million, up 41% year over year and above the first quarter's $783 million. Still, the segment's operating income rose 79% year over year to $1.7 billion, faster than its 66% revenue growth, so its margins are widening. Every satellite launched on a reused rocket could carry a lower cost onto the books -- plus less depreciation against this profit for years to come.

How many flights does Starlink need?

Each V3 satellite is designed for 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity, about a tenfold increase over a V2 satellite. SpaceX expects one Starship to eventually carry up to 60 of them, according to its IPO prospectus, so Flight 14's 26 satellites were under half a full load.

Musk has said V3 satellites won't noticeably improve service until the network has roughly 1,000 of them, which he expects around the second quarter of 2027. At 26 per flight, that's about 37 more Starship launches. Even at 60 per flight, it's at least 17. The program has made 14 flights in its entire history.

Building a new ship and booster for each of these flights might get really costly, so reuse is arguably what makes that many launches doable on that schedule.

And capacity matters because of how Starlink is growing. Subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million by the end of June, while average revenue per user dropped from $85 a month to $66. Put simply, Starlink is gaining customers that pay less on average, and more customers need more capacity.

The first reflight could be months away

On Aug. 20, Musk wrote on X that a ship catch would likely happen in a few months, with the first ship reflight late this year or early next. Flight 15 might include the first catch attempt.

Then again, Musk's dates slip. On the Aug. 4 earnings call, he said SpaceX would try to catch the ship on Flight 14.

At around $168 as I write, SpaceX has a market value over $2.2 trillion -- a valuation of more than 70 times sales, using annualized second-quarter revenue. A price like that already assumes Starship becomes the cheap, reusable rocket SpaceX describes.

Reaching orbit didn't prove that. A catch and a reflight would go a long way toward it. Until a Starship upper stage flies again, I think investors are paying for a cost advantage SpaceX hasn't shown yet.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.