SpaceX Faces Second Lock-Up Wave as SPCX Fails to Hit $150, Risks Re-Testing $100

TradingKey - SpaceX faces selling pressure from a second wave of lockup expirations, blocking its rally toward $150 and increasing the risk of a decline toward the $100 psychological level.

On August 19 ET, SpaceX (SPCX) shares came under pressure, slipping 0.44% in pre-market trading to trade at $142.69. Yesterday, a spike in U.S. Treasury yields triggered a collective pullback in U.S. tech and high-valuation sectors. As market risk aversion escalated, SPCX, as a high-beta newly listed stock, took the brunt of liquidity withdrawals, sending its share price down nearly 2%.

Recently, SpaceX shares attempted to rally toward $150 twice, both times pulling back after peaking. Now, SpaceX faces a second wave of selling pressure from lockup expirations, giving shorts an opportunity to push the stock price lower. Following the first wave of lockup expirations after its Q2 earnings report in early August, SpaceX enters its second phased lockup expiration this Thursday (August 20), marking its 70th day as a public company. This wave will release approximately 7% of restricted shares, capped at 319 million shares.

Both internal and external factors are subjecting SpaceX shares to short-term pullback pressure. The first line of defense is around $135, which corresponds to SpaceX's IPO price as well as a shallow support level at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. If this level fails to hold, the stock may seek a second, stronger support level around $100, a region representing historical lows formed during its bottoming process from late July to early August. As long as the macroeconomic environment does not deteriorate further, the likelihood of an extreme scenario where SpaceX stock plunges directly below $100 remains relatively limited.

SpaceX stock chart, Source: TradingView