3 Reasons MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Could Climb While Bitcoin Remains Flat
Strategy (MSTR) stock is climbing back toward $100, closing Monday near $97.68 after a 5% jump, even though the Bitcoin behind it has barely moved near $64,000.
The stock is down about 38% in 2026, a steeper fall than Bitcoin’s 28% slide. Yet almost every analyst covering MSTR stock still rates it a Strong Buy. Three forces explain that gap, and they all trace back to one number, a premium called mNAV.
MSTR Stock Has Fallen Faster Than Bitcoin
First, the damage. MSTR has dropped roughly 38% so far in 2026, while Bitcoin, the asset that fills its treasury, is down about 28%. The stock fell harder than the thing it owns.
That is the opposite of what buyers signed up for. Strategy was built to act as leveraged Bitcoin, rising more in rallies, so trailing the coin in a slump is the puzzle the bull case has to solve. But MSTR can still do it without Bitcoin’s help, and 3 reasons explain how.
Reason One, a Premium That Can Rebound
The recovery starts with mNAV, the one number that drives the stock. MSTR is worth the Bitcoin it holds, its net asset value, times a premium investors pay on top, a multiple you can track live. When sentiment runs hot, the premium swells. When it sours, the premium shrinks.
BREAKING: Strategy, $MSTR’s enterprise mNAV closed below 1 for the first time in history.This means the market now values the company at less than the Bitcoin it holds. pic.twitter.com/J8b7kR2ysZ
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) June 28, 2026
Right now it has shrunk hard. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, worth about $54 billion at today’s price, yet it paid roughly $63 billion for them, leaving the stack around $9 billion underwater.
The premium that once reached 1.4 times of Bitcoin has since collapsed, and here the math splits in two. On a basic basis, which counts only the common stock, mNAV slipped under 1 to about 0.7, so the shares were worth less than the Bitcoin behind them.
Trackers that also fold in Strategy’s preferred shares and convertible debt read higher, closer to 1.05, which is why you will see both numbers quoted.
Saylor: MSTR Investors Should Hold for at Least Four Years, Preferably Seven to 10, and Be Prepared for Difficult YearsStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said MSTR investors should have at least a four-year time horizon, with seven to 10 years preferable, and should be… pic.twitter.com/CH4w5vvR50
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 17, 2026
That discount is the setup. If sentiment steadies and the premium re-rates back toward 1.5, the stock could climb by half with Bitcoin doing nothing at all.
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How can that premium rise while Bitcoin holds still? Because it is a demand multiple, not a fixed amount, so it swells when more money wants MicroStrategy as a convenient, leveraged Bitcoin bet than wants the coin itself. Index buying, share buybacks that shrink the supply, or a simple return of risk appetite can each lift it.
Reason Two, Strategy Buys Back Its Own Stock
The second reason is what the company now does with its cash. When the premium sat above 1, Strategy could sell new shares at a markup, buy Bitcoin, and hand holders more Bitcoin per share. Near 1, that accretion engine stalls, so the buying stopped.
$MSTR – STRATEGY SELLS $334M STOCK, BUYS NO BITCOINStrategy sold 3.46M shares, raising $333.7M through its ATM program last week.The company made no Bitcoin purchases, keeping holdings unchanged at 840,447 BTC, acquired for $63.36B at an average $75,385 per BTC.Strategy…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 17, 2026
Strategy’s last Bitcoin purchase came in mid-June, and it has since gone about eight weeks without adding a coin. Instead, it funnels cash into its STRC preferred stock, a share class that pays a rich dividend and is built to trade near $100, buying it back to defend that price.
LATEST: ⚡ Michael Saylor says Strategy will not issue STRC below $100, with buybacks funded through MSTR share sales and, depending on market conditions, Bitcoin sales. pic.twitter.com/bm1uekshTv
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) July 27, 2026
The move is deliberate.
Retiring stock below its value lifts the Bitcoin behind each remaining share, so holders can gain even while Bitcoin sits flat.
Reason Three: The Sellers Have Quit
The third reason sits on the chart. MSTR has traded inside a rising channel since late June, carving higher lows while Bitcoin drifted sideways. Monday’s 5% candle bounced off the lower edge near $92.
The volume seals it. Trading is down about 63% from June, and since early August, the selling has thinned while buyers have crept back to July levels. Tired sellers and steadier buyers point to seller exhaustion, not fresh mania.
What the Price Action Says Now
All three reasons now meet at one line, $100. A clean break above the round number exposes $101.96, and clearing it opens $104.73 and then $108.26.
The bigger signal sits higher. A push above $118.46 would give the stock room to run toward $134.95 and even $151.44. That zone only reaches the low end of Wall Street’s target range, and the average target sits far above even that.
Below the action, $98.07 and $95.66 are the first supports, and a daily close under $91.77 breaks the channel and voids the case.
Analyst’s View: So the bullish case for the MSTR stock is possible but conditional. MSTR stock only rewards the Strong Buy if Bitcoin steadies. And also if the premium heals and the price clears $118, the upper trendline of the bullish channel.
Disclaimer: The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only. CFD trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This article serves informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consider your risk tolerance before trading.
