The Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, Walmart, Target and Home Depot Earnings to Test US Consumer Resilience

TradingKey - In the coming week (August 17 to August 21), the market focus in the U.S. will be on the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting. The U.S. will also release key data including housing starts, building permits, industrial production, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, and preliminary August PMI data.

Recently released U.S. inflation data has eased market concerns to some extent regarding an immediate Fed rate hike. The July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June, with core CPI rising 2.5% year-over-year; July PPI was flat month-over-month, with its year-over-year growth also slowing from 5.5% in June to 4.7%. Following the PPI release, interest rate futures showed that the market estimated roughly a 67.6% probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in September, with the probability of a rate hike falling to 32.4%.

However, policy disagreements within the Fed persist. The July meeting voted 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged, with three members advocating a 25-basis-point rate hike. Therefore, the meeting minutes to be released next week will serve as an important basis for the market to gauge the policy direction for September.

On the corporate front, the core focus of U.S. earnings next week will shift further from AI tech stocks to U.S. consumer, real estate, and industrial cycles. Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), Estée Lauder (EL), Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE), Ross Stores (ROST), and analog chip leader Analog Devices (ADI) will report earnings in succession.

Major Events Preview

Fed's July Meeting Minutes Ahead

On Wednesday (August 19), the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July 28–29 FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

At the July meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote was 9 to 3, with three members supporting a 25-basis-point rate hike—representing the most notable policy divergence currently watched by the market.

However, U.S. economic data has shifted significantly since then. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 23,000, and with neither CPI nor PPI showing a further distinct acceleration in inflation, market bets on a September rate hike declined from over 50% previously to around 30%.

Therefore, the focus of the meeting minutes will be why the majority of members chose to wait and see, and just how concerned the officials supporting a rate hike were about inflation. If the minutes show that more officials believe current interest rates are insufficient to contain price pressures, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could strengthen again, while high-valuation tech stocks and gold may face pressure.

Conversely, if the minutes reveal that most members were more concerned about employment and economic growth while viewing the current policy stance as sufficiently restrictive, market expectations for holding rates steady in September could be further reinforced.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Data: Resilience of Economic Growth Under Test

On Tuesday (August 18), the Federal Reserve will release July industrial production and capacity utilization data. U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% month-over-month in June, growing at an annualized rate of 4.0% in the second quarter, while manufacturing output was essentially flat in June.

Markets will focus closely on manufacturing production, mining, and utilities output to assess whether corporate capital expenditure and manufacturing activity continue to support the U.S. economy.

Regional manufacturing indicators will also be released intensively next week. The August Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released on Monday, followed by the August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday.

If industrial production and both regional manufacturing surveys improve in tandem, market confidence in a U.S. economic "soft landing" will be boosted; however, if economic activity remains strong while price sub-indices rise again, it could re-apply pressure on the Fed to hike rates later this year.

Walmart, Target, and Home Depot Face Earnings Test

On Tuesday (August 18), Home Depot will lead off by reporting its second-quarter financial results. The company has confirmed it will host an earnings conference call at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time that day.

Home Depot's results are highly correlated with the U.S. housing market. Investors will closely watch same-store sales, professional customer demand, large remodeling projects, building material prices, and full-year guidance. With U.S. home sales still constrained by high mortgage rates, Home Depot's earnings report will help the market gauge whether households continue to delay home renovations and big-ticket durable goods spending.

On Wednesday (August 19), Target, Lowe's, TJX, and Estée Lauder will release earnings in a packed schedule. Target has confirmed it will hold its second-quarter earnings call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time that day, while Lowe's will host its earnings call at 9:00 a.m.

Target's key areas will be non-food discretionary spending, foot traffic, and digital sales; Lowe's will offer further validation of home renovation demand; TJX will shed light on whether U.S. consumers continue shifting toward off-price retail and value-for-money items. Estée Lauder's report will primarily reflect beauty consumption, profit margins, and cost-cutting progress. Both TJX and Estée Lauder have confirmed they will publish results on August 19.

Walmart Earnings Grand Finale: Critical Test for U.S. Consumer Resilience

On Thursday (August 20), Walmart will report its second-quarter earnings. The company has confirmed it will release results and hold an earnings conference call on that day.

As one of the largest retailers in the U.S., Walmart covers grocery, general merchandise, electronics, apparel, and online shopping, making its earnings report a crucial bellwether for U.S. consumer spending.

Markets will closely monitor U.S. same-store sales, e-commerce performance, store traffic, product pricing, inventory levels, and full-year guidance. If Walmart continues to deliver steady growth, it would indicate that U.S. consumer spending remains quite resilient even as job growth slows.

Analog Devices Earnings to Gauge Semiconductor Recovery as Industrial and AI Demand Take Center Stage

On Wednesday (August 19) before the U.S. market open, Analog Devices will report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results and hold a conference call at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

The company previously forecasted third-quarter fiscal revenue of approximately $3.9 billion and adjusted earnings per share of around $3.30. In the preceding quarter, the company's revenue reached $3.62 billion, with both industrial and communications segments achieving year-over-year growth.

Markets will focus heavily on demand for data center, communications infrastructure, industrial automation, and automotive chips, as well as management's guidance for the next quarter. Given Analog Devices' broad business coverage, its earnings report will reflect AI infrastructure demand while helping investors assess whether the traditional industrial and automotive semiconductor cycle continues to recover.

Core Schedule for the Week

Monday (August 17)

Key Events: Empire State Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index

The US will release the August Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index.

The manufacturing data will reflect new orders, employment, and price changes at factories in New York State, while the housing market index will gauge homebuilder confidence in future residential demand.

Tuesday (August 18)

Key Events: US Industrial Production, Import and Export Prices, Home Depot Earnings

The US will release July housing starts and building permits, industrial production and capacity utilization, as well as July import and export price indexes.

The July pending home sales index will also be released on the same day.

On the corporate front, Home Depot will release its second-quarter earnings, with US home renovation and big-ticket consumer demand becoming a key market focus.

Wednesday (August 19)

Key Events: FOMC Minutes, Analog Devices Earnings, Target Earnings, Lowe's Earnings, TJX Earnings

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET, with the market seeking more clues on the September policy path and internal divisions over rate hikes.

On the corporate front, Analog Devices, Target, Lowe's, TJX, and Estée Lauder will report earnings in concentration, placing semiconductors, housing-related spending, consumer discretionary, and off-price retail in the US stock market spotlight.

Thursday (August 20)

Key Events: Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Leading Economic Index, Walmart Earnings

The US will release weekly initial jobless claims and the August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

The Conference Board will also release the US Leading Economic Index (LEI) for July at 10:00 a.m. ET. The June LEI fell 0.2% month-over-month, so whether the July data improves will serve as an important reference for observing the future economic cycle.

On the corporate front, Walmart, Deere, and Ross Stores will report earnings, bringing US consumer spending, agricultural machinery, and off-price retail demand into market focus.

Friday (August 21)

Key Events: US August Flash PMI, State Employment Data

The US will release the preliminary August S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs.

In July, the US Manufacturing PMI was 53.9 and the Services PMI was 54.6, both above 50 in expansion territory. Therefore, whether the August data remains in expansion will serve as an important basis for assessing US third-quarter economic growth.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will also release July state employment and unemployment data, providing supplementary information to evaluate whether the labor market cooling is widespread.