SpaceX Stock Adds $500 Billion for an AI Unit That Lost $1.26 Billion
SpaceX (SPCX) stock rose 12% on Wednesday to $149.29. That is a 36% gain in five sessions and more than $500 billion in new market value.
The trigger was software, not rockets. SpaceXAI, the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) arm, shipped Grok 4.6. That division lost $1.26 billion last quarter.
Introducing Grok 4.6.It delivers frontier intelligence and is a significant improvement over Grok 4.5 at the same price. pic.twitter.com/RtTbpXcb3a
— SpaceXAI (@SpaceXAI) August 12, 2026
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Elon Musk Says Grok 4.7 Will Beat Anthropic
Chief Executive Elon Musk put Grok 4.7 three to four weeks out. Training is done and SpaceX company data goes in next, he said. He first floated that plan in July.
“Grok 4.7 will exceed all current models. That said, Anthropic is a great company and will probably release improved models soon. However, the SpaceX training corpus is so awesome & unique that I would be shocked if any model is better at real-world engineering than 4.7,” Musk wrote on Wednesday.
Musk conceded Anthropic’s lead only last month. Grok 4.6 has not won it back. Artificial Analysis scored it 61 on its intelligence index. Claude Opus 5 holds 63 and Claude Fable 5 holds 62.
SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 scores 61 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, joining the frontier in line with GPT-5.6 Sol, with standout agentic performance at lower costGrok 4.6 gains 5 points over Grok 4.5 on the Intelligence Index just over one month after its release, or… pic.twitter.com/QeqrKpVUjk
— Artificial Analysis (@ArtificialAnlys) August 12, 2026
Analyst Miles Deutscher calls it a price win, not a power win.
“So with Grok 4.6 you’re basically getting: • Fable 5 at 80% discount • GPT-5.6 Sol at a 60% discount ($2/$6 vs $5/$30 per million tokens) • Faster response than both The only caveat is a 500k context window & Fable still seems to be the pound-for-pound coding king,” wrote Deutscher.
As of this writing, SpaceX stock, SPCX, traded for $149.29, up 12% on the day. Economists at Market Watch ascribe the gains to the Grok product launch.
Despite the gains, SPCX stock still trades below its $150 debut and 35% under its record near $226. With the latest gains, Elon Musk has now hung half a trillion dollars on a model that has not shipped.
Grok 4.7 is significantly better than 4.6 and should be ready in 3 to 4 weeks. Initial training is complete and now we’re adding a massive amount of SpaceX company data in supplemental training. This will be something special.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 12, 2026
Morgan Stanley Says Investors Price SpaceX AI at Zero
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas flagged the gap on July 27. Most investors he speaks to “ascribe zero or even negative value” to the AI arm, he wrote. They blame its appetite for cash.
Jonas disagrees. More than half of his $300 target rests on AI. His $600 bull case needs AI above 60% of the value.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas in new @SpaceX note:"We believe the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares.We believe SpaceX remains uniquely positioned across… pic.twitter.com/TdqQY6Yco2
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) July 24, 2026
So the rally is the market closing that gap. Awkwardly, it is closing it on the one part of SpaceX that loses money.
The AI unit booked $2.56 billion of revenue last quarter, up 247%. It also took $15.83 billion of the group’s $18.4 billion capital spending. That is 86% of the budget for 33% of the sales.
The unit lost $1.26 billion. Connectivity, mostly Starlink, covers that with $1.66 billion in operating profit.
Two AI headlines did the heavy lifting. Argus analyst Steven Silver upgraded SPCX to Buy on August 7. He cited that 247% growth and management’s claim of sub-one-year payback on some AI hardware. The stock closed up 15.8% and gained $240 billion.
🚨 Argus believes SpaceX $SPCX could make back its AI spending in under a year and set a Buy rating with a $160 price target https://t.co/5bhJ28JQA8
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 11, 2026
Wednesday’s Grok 4.6 session added another $190 billion. Between them, those two days supplied 83% of the move.
The rest was mechanical. A 911.5 million share lockup overhang lifted on August 6 and SPCX rose 6%. It reclaimed the $135 IPO price on Monday.
The base was also unusually low. SPCX had fallen 13.6% on August 5, when one word on its debut quarterly earnings call spooked chip investors.
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