Prediction: You Won't Recognize Plug Power in 2028. Should You Buy the Hydrogen Stock Before It's Too Late?

Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) is a pioneering hydrogen company with a profitability problem. In over 25 years since its IPO, the hydrogen fuel cell company has never turned a profit. With a new chief executive in place and a significant turnaround plan in the pipeline, the firm says this will change: It predicts a positive operating income next year and full profitability in 2028.

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Long-suffering Plug Power investors, who've heard similar promises before, may be skeptical. The stock has fallen 92% in the past five years and has had to borrow heavily and issue several rounds of new shares to stay afloat. However, this time, the company might just pull it off. Read on to find out what this hydrogen stock might look like in a few years' time, as well as why investors should still be cautious.

Project Quantum Leap is showing results

Plug Power is focused on green hydrogen, which is carbon-neutral and does not use methane or coal. Production is expensive, and Plug Power has struggled to charge enough to recoup the costs -- a major reason for years of losses. The environmental appeal is clear, but even with subsidies, green hydrogen is unlikely to be able to compete on a cost basis with other types of hydrogen in the coming decades.

Plug Power's big challenge is making this expensive fuel more profitable. Over a year ago, it announced Project Quantum Leap, a turnaround plan that combines cost-cutting with a pivot toward higher revenue areas. For example, it is growing its electrolyzer segment, which designs and manufactures the crucial hydrogen production units. Its electrolyzer revenue increased from $9.2 million in 2025 to $40.8 million in 2026. With deals in Europe and Canada, the electrolyzer segment was the fastest-growing part of the business in Q1.

Its 2026 Q1 results showed the plan is paying off, with revenues up 22% year over year to $163.5 million, beating analyst expectations. The firm still lost money, but with $21.6 million in gross Q1 losses, compared to $73.9 million in Q1 2025, its operations are losing less money than before. That said, Plug Power is still spending more than it earns, and it owes a lot of money. Servicing its debt cost it $17.4 million in Q1 2026.

Should you buy Plug Power before it's too late?

In some ways, there's no such thing as "too late" if you're a long-term investor looking for quality stocks -- while it is good to find a low entry point, companies with strong fundamentals will likely continue to deliver shareholder value for decades to come. So the better question is whether Plug Power -- which has fallen by 17% in the past month -- is a strong long-term investment.

It is too early to say, but right now I'm cautious. The company may have put the days it burned through cash faster than the hydrogen it produces behind it, but it has a long way to go. Not least because its substantial debts mean interest and repayments will weigh on any potential turnaround. Moreover, green hydrogen is a capital-intensive industry, and Plug Power may struggle to find competitive price points, making profitability by 2028 an ambitious target.

Emma Newbery has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.