Here's Why the 2027 Social Security COLA Could Be Lower Than Expected
Key Points
The 2027 Social Security COLA is expected to be above average at around 3.8%.
The COLA is based on changes in average third-quarter inflation data.
It may come in lower than expected if inflation decreases over the next few months.
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If you're hoping for an above-average Social Security boost in 2027, there's a good chance you could get your wish. The most recent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) projection from The Senior Citizens League estimates the 2027 COLA at about 3.8%. That's a whole percentage point higher than what seniors got in 2026.
That said, it's too early to start celebrating. We won't know the official COLA until mid-October, and there's still a chance that changes in inflation could cause the COLA to come in a bit lower than expected.
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The Social Security Administration calculates COLAs by looking at the change in average third-quarter inflation from one year to the next, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The percentage increase becomes the COLA for the next year.
We have all the data we need for 2025, but we've only just finished the first month of the third quarter of 2026. We need to wait for the CPI-W numbers for July, August, and September to come in before we'll know the actual COLA.
The COLA estimates are above average right now because inflation has been high over the past several months. But if that changes as we get deeper into August and September, that could result in a lower COLA than current projections suggest.
Fortunately, you'll have a few months after the official 2027 Social Security COLA announcement to start planning your budget for the next year. That should give you plenty of time to figure out how far your checks will go and how much of your expenses you'll need to cover on your own.
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