Elon Musk's $1 Trillion Pay Package Requires Tesla Stock to Grow Roughly Sixfold to an $8.5 Trillion Market Cap
Key Points
Although he lost his trillionaire status due to the post-IPO pullback from SpaceX shares, Elon Musk could become a trillionaire again by leading Tesla to enormous, profitable growth.
The pathway to this $1 trillion payday, however, is steep and lengthy, and it will require brilliant navigation.
While the size and premise of this compensation plan may be unpopular, there’s no denying it would mean enormous rewards for Tesla shareholders as well.
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By virtue of owning over 40% of the company, Elon Musk briefly achieved trillionaire status shortly after Space Exploration Technologies (better known as SpaceX) went public in mid-June and temporarily reached a $2.44 trillion market cap shortly thereafter.
SpaceX isn't Musk's only path to reaching trillionaire status again, however. He can also do the same by leading Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to (much) bigger and better things.
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How to make your first $1 trillion
Tesla's board of directors has laid out a highly detailed, highly aggressive path of milestones that would allow Elon Musk to become a trillionaire again.
Some of these milestones are market-cap-related. For instance, Musk will receive 35.3 million shares -- of up to nearly 424 million shares allotted for this compensation plan -- if Tesla reaches a market cap of $2 trillion. The other 11 same-size tranches of these earmarked shares will be granted as Tesla marches toward an $8.5 trillion market cap.
Image source: The U.S. White House.
It's not just a matter of market cap, however. Tesla must also produce and sell a minimum number of products, and do so profitably. Specifically, although interim progress will be recognized, for Musk to receive most of the prospective stock award, Tesla must manufacture at least 20 million electric vehicles as well as a minimum of 1 million AI robots, in addition to putting at least 1 million robotaxis into service. And while Musk will become eligible for some of this stock-based compensation when Tesla reaches $50 billion worth of adjusted annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), a large chunk of the 424 million shares in question won't be granted until the company's generating yearly adjusted EBITDA of at least $400 billion.
The clock is ticking, too. Musk must reach these goals within 10 years of shareholder approval of the program late last year. Shares earned during the first five years of the program vest 7.5 years into the 10-year program, while shares won during the latter five years of the 10-year plan fully vest at the 10-year mark. He must also be employed as CEO or in another approved executive position when these stock awards become vested to keep them.
A true win-win
It's a mind-boggling pay package, but to be fair, these are mind-boggling targets. For perspective, Tesla's current market cap stands at just under $1 trillion, and last year's adjusted EBITDA was just under $15 billion. It's going to require a Herculean effort to reach most of these milestones.
There's no denying that this compensation plan aligns Musk's interests with those of other Tesla shareholders.
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James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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