For Solana to surpass Bitcoin and Ethereum in market cap, it needs a major new catalyst.
Solana has pushed into fast-growth areas such as stablecoins, tokenization, and prediction markets.
If Solana can find a "killer app," it could increase in value by 40 times.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) currently account for a staggering 70% of the entire value of the crypto market. They have been so dominant, for so long, that it's almost unimaginable for any other cryptocurrency to surpass them in market cap.
But there's one cryptocurrency that might do just that, based on the hyper-bullish growth projections from some analysts. That cryptocurrency is Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), which currently ranks as the seventh-largest crypto in the world.
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Currently, Solana has a market cap of $45 billion, while Ethereum has a market cap of $217 billion, and Bitcoin has a market cap of $1.28 trillion.
That puts Solana in a tough spot. It would need to scale to $1.5 trillion to surpass Bitcoin and Ethereum in size. Based on its current valuation, that's a roughly 33 times increase in value.
Obviously, Solana will need a mega-catalyst to make that happen. Simply adding a few more spot Solana ETFs to the mix won't do the job. Solana will need to offer something that Bitcoin and Ethereum don't, and that's harder than it sounds.
Three years ago, the 33 times catalyst was supposed to be mobile crypto. In 2023, Solana unveiled a new mobile phone optimized for crypto, and that was supposed to be the key to onboarding new users and ramping up overall user activity.
Then, two years ago, Solana became the go-to blockchain for meme coins. That drove tremendous user growth and new blockchain activity. But meme coin mania fizzled out in 2025, as investors finally realized that most get-rich-quick meme coins are actually get-poor-quick meme coins.
With that in mind, Solana has been exploring real-world applications of decentralized finance (DeFi) tailored for large financial institutions. It's moving into stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which are two of the fastest-growing areas of the DeFi world.
Solana's blockchain partners have also announced a push into prediction markets and perpetual futures trading. Both have been red-hot in 2026 and could be the type of "killer app" that Solana needs to scale to $1.5 trillion.
Back in October 2023, investment firm VanEck predicted that Solana might soar to a price of $3,200 by 2030. That best-case scenario was based on Solana's continued ability to win market share away from Ethereum. VanEck also predicted that Solana would become the first blockchain to develop a "killer app" with 100 million users.
So let's do the math again. Based on Solana's current price of $78, a stratospheric move to $3,200 implies a gain of more than 40 times. That's more than enough for Solana to surpass Bitcoin and Ethereum combined in value.
Yes, it's a long-shot possibility. Solana is down 37% year to date and needs to regain its mojo soon. But if it does, watch out. Solana could be the one cryptocurrency investors may want to own going forward.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.