Prediction: $1,000 Invested in SpaceX Today Will Be Worth This Much By 2030

As the late, great Yogi Berra once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." His quip is especially applicable to a company like Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX.

The stock took off like one of its rockets following its initial public offering (IPO) last month. This surge was particularly impressive, given that SpaceX's IPO was the largest in history. However, the space technology company's share price has since pulled back. Investors who bought after the IPO are now sitting on a hefty loss.

How much could $1,000 invested in SpaceX stock today be worth by 2030? Predictions about the future are tough, just as Yogi Berra said. But I'll make one about SpaceX anyway.

Image source: Getty Images.

Two very different scenarios

If you're optimistic about SpaceX (and many investors are), you'll focus on the company's tremendous growth prospects. SpaceX dominates the rapidly growing commercial space launch industry. Some believe that the company's Starlink satellite internet service could disrupt the businesses of telecom giants AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ). SpaceX thinks its biggest opportunity lies in artificial intelligence (AI) applications, including AI data centers orbiting Earth.

Arete Research's Andrew Beale projects the stock could hit $401 over the next 12 months. This price target implies an upside of roughly 148%, enough to grow an initial $1,000 investment to around $2,480. If SpaceX delivers such an impressive return over the near term, it could be worth much more by 2030.

On the other hand, it's easy to find SpaceX bears. Morningstar (NASDAQ: MORN) crunched the numbers and arrived at a fair value of $63 per share. Assuming the initial euphoria wanes, and SpaceX eventually trades somewhere close to this number, an investment of $1,000 now could dwindle to below $390.

A middle-of-the-road prediction

I think the best prediction for SpaceX isn't as optimistic as the most fervent bulls, but it isn't as pessimistic as Morningstar's analysis either. My view is that the company's revenue will grow robustly, fueled by Starlink, AI infrastructure, and the launch business (with Starship's contribution increasing over the next few years). But I also fully expect insiders' selling in the coming months will take a toll.

With these factors in mind, I predict that SpaceX's shares will trade around $160 by the end of 2030. Yep, that's roughly where the stock is today. It's also in line with where I expect the stock will be at the end of 2026. If I'm right, an investment of $1,000 would be worth in the ballpark of $987 by the end of the decade.

A stock that essentially treads water for four years isn't one that most investors will want to buy. SpaceX could be a huge winner over the next few decades. My view, though, is that many other stocks offer a more attractive risk-reward proposition right now.

Keith Speights has positions in Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.