SpaceX Continues to Rocket Higher. Here's What the Stock Could Be Worth in 6 Months, According to History.

"This time will be different."

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) went public on Friday and made history in several ways. The company initially raised a record-setting $75 billion, with the total rising to $85.7 billion after the underwriters exercised the overallotment -- additional shares available if demand is high. SpaceX also closed at a record market cap of $2.1 trillion, the highest-ever for a newly minted company.

The excitement continues to run hot. The stock is up 58% (as I write this), from its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135, and shows no signs of slowing. This begs the question: where will SpaceX stock be in six months, and is it too late for investors to buy?

History provides a compelling answer.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

A highflier

Generally speaking, newly public stocks tend to be more volatile than their more established peers. The reasons are easy to understand. Companies tend to put their best foot forward when preparing for their IPOs to attract potential shareholders.

Even then, however, investors generally have limited information to work with, as IPO filings typically cover only two to three years' worth of information at best. Once a company goes public, it begins to form a more complete history that shareholders and potential investors can scrutinize. The IPO-related excitement gives way to the harsh reality of running a business.

Not only are recent IPO stocks more volatile, but have a sketchy track record that should be illuminating for investors (more on that in a minute).

Show me the money

SpaceX generated plenty of excitement in the lead-up to its IPO, and it's easy to see why. Last year, the company generated revenue of $18.7 billion, up 33% year over year, resulting in a net loss of $4.9 billion under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). The results look more appealing on an adjusted basis, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $6.6 billion -- but the company is still losing money.

On a more positive note, SpaceX has generated operating cash flow in each of the past three years. This suggests that non-cash items, such as depreciation, are responsible for its losses, which likely means profitability is on the horizon.

Since then, several notable developments point to an improving financial situation. SpaceX's xAI segment has reached deals with AI start-up Anthropic and Alphabet to provide the companies with compute capacity for $1.25 billion and $920 million per month, respectively. That works out to more than $26 billion annually, which suggests SpaceX could more than double its revenue in 2026.

What history shows

While there are obviously plenty of reasons to be bullish, investors should probably take a step back to see what history reveals.

Truist equity analyst Sam Grelck compiled data from the 30 biggest IPOs of the past 15 years, and the conclusions are telling. More than half of these offerings were in the red after the first week, and at six months post-IPO, as 17 of 30 stocks were underwater.

The best-performing stock on the list was CoreWeave, up 217% after the first six months but shedding as much as 65% of its value at one point during the year. Rivian Automotive had the worst track record, losing 77% in the first six months and falling as much as 88% before the first year was out. The full data is illustrated in the chart below.

Image source: Truist.

This suggests a wide range of possibilities for investors. If it performs like CoreWeave, for example, SpaceX stock could be worth as much as $292. However, if it follows Rivian's example, SpaceX would be worth as little as $44 -- well below its IPO price of $135.

There's also the matter of its valuation. SpaceX has vaulted up the list of most valuable companies with a current market cap of more than $2.8 trillion (as I write this), surpassing Amazon at $2.6 trillion. In terms of its 2025 revenue, SpaceX is selling for 151 times sales. Even assuming SpaceX can more than double its revenue to $45 billion in 2026, the stock is still selling for 63 times forward sales, an egregious valuation, to be sure.

For context, Palantir Technologies, often cited as having one of the highest valuations on the market, sells for 41 times sales, which helps illustrate the high expectations baked into SpaceX's stock price.

SpaceX could be the exception that proves the rule, but investors should prepare themselves for the very real possibility that the stock could come crashing down at some point in the coming months -- providing astute investors with a buying opportunity.

Danny Vena, CPA has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.