Prediction: Apple Stock Will Go On a Bull Run in the Second Half of 2026

The first half of 2026 is drawing to a close, and shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) have turned in a disappointing performance so far.

The 9% jump in Apple stock this year is underwhelming compared to the 15% jump seen in the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite index. However, the stock's fortunes could turn around in the second half of the year, driven by the arrival of a foldable iPhone that should help Apple tap into a fast-growing smartphone niche.

Let's look at the reasons why this new product could become a major catalyst for Apple.

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Apple's rumored foldable iPhone is arriving at the right time

Recent leaks suggest that Apple could indeed launch a foldable iPhone in September this year. There are references to foldable features in the beta code of Apple's latest smartphone software -- iOS 27. Meanwhile, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman predicts that Apple could launch the foldable iPhone in just two colors, while noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities suggests the same.

Given that leaks about Apple's products tend to be accurate, it won't be surprising to see it indeed launch a foldable iPhone this year. Moreover, it is high time Apple moved into this space. After all, several competitors, including Samsung, have been offering foldable phones for a long time. Apple has been late to this niche, but this may just be the right time to enter the foldable smartphone market.

According to IDC, the foldable smartphone market grew by an estimated 10% in 2025, accelerating from the 3.9% jump seen in 2024. The research firm expects a much larger jump of almost 30% in foldable smartphone sales in 2026. What's more, IDC anticipates foldable smartphone shipments to jump by 21.1% in 2027, 13.6% in 2028, and 9.3% in 2029.

That's why Apple needs to enter this space without any further delay. Moreover, Apple's position as one of the leading smartphone vendors globally will put it in a solid position to unlock a new growth opportunity in foldables. IDC points out that Apple controlled 21% of the global smartphone market in Q1, just behind Samsung's 21.2% market share.

However, Apple's shipments increased by 4.4% year over year, outpacing Samsung's 2.9% growth. Meanwhile, the overall smartphone market declined by 2.9% in Q1, suggesting that Apple's strong brand value is driving sales in a difficult market.

Adding a foldable iPhone to the product portfolio could drive stronger sales growth. Also, Apple is expected to price the foldable iPhone at $1,999, as reported by Forbes. Apple's strategy of targeting a niche user base with this high-margin product could give its bottom line a nice boost.

The tech giant's earnings growth could exceed expectations

Apple's earnings are expected to grow by 17% in the current fiscal year (which ends in September), followed by slower growth of 10% in fiscal 2027. However, the premium pricing of the foldable iPhone and a potential jump in Apple's share of this fast-growing space could help outperform expectations.

IDC forecasts that Apple could corner 22% of the foldable smartphone market this year, and its market share could increase to 34% by 2029. The premium pricing of the foldable iPhone could help Apple grow earnings faster than market expectations. That could set this tech stock up for solid gains in the second half of the year, and in the long run.

Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.