SpaceX IPO Frenzy: Crypto Market Premium Exceeds 30% Ignoring Iran Strike Threat

TradingKey - The SpaceX IPO is being feverishly pursued, but this does not necessarily mean the price will rise; beware of the risk of a sharp pullback after listing.

On Friday (June 12), defying threats of strikes from Iran, the price of SpaceX (SPCX) pre-IPO tokenized futures in the crypto market surged. Among them, the price of SpaceX perpetual contracts on Binance ( BNB) surged past $180, approximately 33% higher than the official pricing of $135 per share. However, is this price reasonable? Will SpaceX see a crash after it officially goes live? SpaceX perpetual contract price chart, source: TradingView

According to a disclosure by Iran's state media, the Fars News Agency, on Thursday, Iran has included Elon Musk's business entities in the Middle East in its potential strike range, and SpaceX is among them. Despite the threat of strikes, the investment craze for SpaceX remains unstoppable.

According to Dune data, the SpaceX IPO via Binance wallets has already attracted 27,600 participating addresses, with a total amount reaching $557 million. Furthermore, it is reported that the SpaceX IPO will allocate approximately 20% of its shares to retail investors, and orders for this portion have already received over $100 billion in subscriptions.

SpaceX initially aimed to raise $75 billion, a figure that already breaks the 2019 record of $29.4 billion set by Saudi Aramco, making it the largest IPO in human history. Now, subscription orders from global institutions and buy-side funds have reached as high as $250 billion, representing an oversubscription of 3.5 to 4 times.

The SpaceX IPO is so hot not only because of the celebrity effect brought by Musk himself but also due to optimism regarding the company's business. Wall Street is now pricing SpaceX not just as a rocket company, but as the "strongest AI infrastructure stock," showing a willingness to pay for products or businesses such as xAI, supercomputing centers, space-based AI orbital data centers, and Starlink.

Furthermore, as index providers such as Nasdaq and MSCI have confirmed they will fast-track the inclusion of SPCX, this means trillions of dollars worth of passive ETFs, pension funds, and mutual funds will be forced to buy SpaceX stock within days of its listing, regardless of the price.

Although the SpaceX IPO frenzy is immense, level-headed value scholars have also issued stern warnings, such as NYU valuation authority Aswath Damodaran. Furthermore, veteran short-seller James Chanos stated it is difficult to justify SpaceX's valuation, bluntly pointing out that the SpaceX IPO is built on hopes and dreams. Even though the SpaceX IPO is being fiercely pursued, it does not mean its price will never fall; therefore, it is essential to manage position sizes and leverage carefully.