Oracle Beat Earnings but the Stock Fell 25% From Highs — Is the EMA200 at $190 the Opportunity?

TradingKey - Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) delivered Q4 FY2026 earnings on June 10, posting revenue and EPS figures that topped estimates, yet failing to clear the hurdles for margins and guidance required to sustain its elevated multiple. Revenue was $15.6 billion, an 11% increase on a year-over-year basis. Cloud Services and License Support were $10.2 billion, up 21% year-over-year. Cloud infrastructure grew over 40% with AI-driven GPU cluster workloads seeing triple digit growth in some categories. Remaining Performance Obligations were up 28%, which provides a good revenue outlook for the future. The non-GAAP operating margin was 45.2%, slightly below analysts' projections. FY2027 revenue guidance for Cloud was mid-to-high 20s percentage growth, which was a solid result but not an acceleration of what was priced into the $248 share price. Now it trades at $184.60. At $190.52 Oracle is about to test the EMA200. The RSI is 33.89. The stock is oversold.

What the Q4 FY2026 Numbers Actually Say

Q4 FY2026 results do not reveal a fundamental problem; rather, they reveal a problem with valuations. The fact that a business the size of Oracle’s generated revenue growth of $15.6 billion on a year-over-year basis at 11% with a Cloud Infrastructure Services growth of over 40%, is strong. For Cloud Services and License Support of $10.2 billion, the year-over-year growth of 21% is the most important number for investors to consider, because the company’s business model is being converted from a perpetual license model to a cloud subscription model.

This business model has more upside in terms of margins. The fact that Remaining Performance Obligations were 28% higher and the number itself was huge means that the company’s business model will continue to grow and does not show any evidence of the trend decelerating. Free Cash Flow was $4.8 billion for one quarter; the financial foundation supporting the business continues to grow.

The number that caused the stock price to drop is operating margin, non-GAAP, which was 45.2%, which was below some analyst models. The reason why operating margin, non-GAAP was below analyst models is because the company is accelerating its spending in data centres. It makes this decision because it will be able to meet the demand for Cloud Infrastructure Services of over 40%. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google all made the same decision at a similar stage of the transition to a Cloud infrastructure model. Accept the short-term hit to margins in return for revenue growth, instead of limiting revenue growth, because data centres could not be built faster. FY2027 Cloud revenue growth of mid-to-high 20s percentage growth is what the business is able to support from the perspective of demand from customers.

Why OCI’s 40% Growth Is the Strategic Story That Gets Underweighted

Five years ago, it was hard to picture Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) as a viable alternative to AWS and Azure, occupying a solid third-place spot in the enterprise cloud arena. But fast forward to Q4 FY2026, where OCI is posting 40%+ year-over-year revenue growth and AI GPU cluster usage is skyrocketing at triple-digit rates.

The OCI advantage goes beyond price; it is data sovereignty and compliance.

Financial services, healthcare, and government agencies are increasingly bound by rules dictating where their data must live, and who can access it. Oracle is capitalising on this demand with OCI’s “Dedicated Region” deployment, where it installs Oracle hardware within the customer’s data centre. This is something AWS and Azure can’t offer at scale, because their architectures assume the use of public cloud shared infrastructure. For regulated enterprises building AI models on sensitive data, the option to run OCI on-prem creates a genuine competitive moat.

The second underappreciated narrative is AI adoption.

A huge portion of the Global 2000 already use Oracle’s Autonomous Database and Fusion Cloud ERP solutions. Oracle is now layering generative AI directly into those tools; for example, AI-facilitated financial reporting, automating exceptions in supply chains, and streamlining HR processes. This is a critical path to AI revenues that doesn’t rely on Oracle customers having to build their own AI infrastructure. They’re already in the Oracle ecosystem, so the AI becomes a feature they just opt into when they renew their subscription. The monetisation model here differs significantly from what a hyperscaler might offer, which usually means significant re-architecting and new integrations.

ORCL Technical Setup — EMA200 at $190.52, RSI 33.89, Targets $198 and $210

ORCL has fallen hard over the past 4H period, plunging from $248 high to $184.60, falling below the EMA50 at $210.18, and now touching the EMA200 at $190.52. RSI is in oversold territory at 33.89 with positive divergence in place, as prices continue to make lower lows but RSI is holding higher lows.

Volume has grown on the recent down candles as prices dropped from the $248 high and has been declining on the recent session, confirming that volume has not been high on the EMA200. The ascending channel from the long-term uptrend remains intact above $178. A firm hold above EMA200 above $190.50 is expected to send prices higher, with initial targets at $198 to $210, and $220 to $238 further above.

• Long above $190.50: EMA200 reclaimed
• $198.50: first recovery zone
• $210.18: EMA50 reclaim
• $220 to $238: channel extension
• Daily close below $178.40: major channel support fails

What Did Oracle Report in Q4 FY2026?

Oracle's Q4 FY2026 total revenue was $15.6 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year. Cloud Services and License Support revenue rose 21% to $10.2 billion, while OCI cloud infrastructure increased over 40%. Oracle noted that certain segments saw AI-related GPU cluster workload triple-digit growth. Remaining Performance Obligations climbed 28%. The company generated $4.8 billion in free cash flow for the quarter, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 45.2%, which came in slightly below analyst forecasts. Looking ahead to FY2027, Oracle forecasted its cloud revenue to grow mid-to-high 20s percentage year-over-year.

Why Did Oracle Stock Fall After Beating Earnings?

The Oracle stock decline wasn't due to a fundamental business miss, but rather a recalibration of an already expensive stock. Before the earnings release, Oracle was trading near $248 with a premium valuation that had already priced in robust cloud acceleration. The only catalysts the market had for an earnings-related correction were a modest non-GAAP operating margin miss of 45.2%, attributed to accelerated infrastructure spend in AI, or FY2027 guidance that projected "only" mid-high 20s % year-over-year growth and not more explosive acceleration. Both of these events were enough to generate profit taking among Oracle investors in a market already de-rating premium multiple companies. The April CPI print of 3.8% and 4.1% core CPI prints further reinforced the Warsh Fed's higher for longer narrative and added a second headwind for the sell off of Oracle stock.

Is ORCL a Buy at $184 After the Post-Earnings Pullback?

At $184.60, Oracle is in the RSI 30-50 oversold zone, with the RSI of 33.89. The price is at the EMA200 at 190.52. The sell side volume is easing and this is technically a construct setting. A trade with a long position above $190.50 targets the $198.50 resistance, the $210.18 resistance, and the $220 to $238 range for price targets. The sell stop is at $178.40. The fundamentals are solid, with 40%+ cloud infrastructure OCI growth, 21% cloud subscriptions growth, 28% RPO growth and $4.8 billion in quarterly free cash flow. There is some risk to the upside if macro multiples get de-rated even further with an upcoming Warsh FOMC meeting on the June 16 to 17 dates, which might extend the pull down below the 190.52 ema200.

Bottom Line

Oracle beat on Q4 FY2026 EPS and revenue, and despite that beat the stock price fell from $248 to $184 due to a miss in the non-GAAP operating margin to 45.2% and FY2027 guidance that was good enough but not good enough. Oracle's fundamentals are not weak. 40%+ OCI cloud infrastructure growth, 28% cloud RPO growth, and $4.8 billion quarterly free cash flow are the business numbers underneath the noise.

At the current price of 184.60, it has an RSI reading of 33.89, indicating that it is oversold and it is trading at the EMA200 price of 190.52 with easing sell side volume. A trade with a long position above $190.50 has price targets at $198.50, then $210. The sell stop is at $178.40.

The upcoming June 16 to 17 FOMC meeting is the macro variable to watch out for that could extend the down move in Oracle's stock price before the oversold bounce takes place. For a longer term investor that can look past short term stock price swings and focus on the fundamentals, the OCI sovereign cloud business moat that Oracle has developed and the embedded AI monetisation that Oracle has through their installed base in enterprise resource planning Fusion ERP, are the reasons for investors to hold Oracle long through this volatility.