The Contrarian Case for Buying Crypto in 2026

Admittedly, things are not looking good for crypto investors right now. Market bellwethers Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) are down big this year, and it's obvious that better returns -- at least over the short term -- are available elsewhere.

But what about over the long term? There's plenty of evidence suggesting that crypto may continue to outperform other asset classes over a sufficiently long time horizon. But you'll need to be patient.

Crypto is cyclical

The first thing to keep in mind is that crypto is inherently cyclical. Crypto typically follows a four-year cycle of boom and bust, and right now investors are feeling the pain of a "bust." Cryptos are down across the board, and the investment thesis for crypto appears to be fading. When Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) -- the biggest Bitcoin treasury company in the world -- is selling some of its Bitcoin, you know you're in trouble.

But investors saw the same thing happen during the crypto winter of 2022. Remember when cryptocurrencies were failing across the board, crypto investment firms were going bankrupt, and cryptocurrency exchanges were imploding? Bitcoin shed 64% of its value in a single year, and other cryptos were down 80% or more. Things looked very bleak indeed.

Image source: Getty Images.

But then what happened? Bitcoin rallied from its low of $16,000 to cruise past $100,000, pulling the entire crypto market along. Investor appetite for risky, speculative crypto assets quickly returned, driving several leading cryptocurrencies to record all-time highs. Even longtime skeptics suddenly became big believers in crypto.

There's no guarantee that history will repeat, of course. But there's no denying that Bitcoin (and crypto in general) follows a four-year cycle. There have been major crashes in 2014, 2018, and 2022. So a downturn in 2026 is nothing out of the ordinary.

Institutional adoption

Another reason to be hopeful about crypto is that the pace of institutional adoption is rising. Sometimes this happens in big, splashy ways -- such as when Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) announces it is launching spot crypto trading for its retail customers -- and sometimes it happens in less obvious ways. The fact that the U.S. government remains committed to making America the "crypto capital of the world" should be music to the ears of crypto investors.

It means that Wall Street firms will continue to launch new investment products for crypto investors, banks and financial institutions will continue to embrace blockchain-based payment solutions, and corporations will continue to experiment with crypto as a treasury asset. All of these catalysts should help to send the crypto market higher over the long haul.

The long-term outlook for crypto

It's no surprise, then, that some investors still think that Bitcoin could hit a price of $1 million by the year 2030. After all, Bitcoin has grown exponentially ever since its launch back in 2009. Yes, there have been setbacks along the way. But each time, Bitcoin has bounced back, better than before.

It might be a contrarian view right now, but the crypto market is heading higher in 2027. The time to buy is now, when top cryptocurrencies are available at fire-sale prices.

Charles Schwab is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool recommends Charles Schwab and recommends the following options: short June 2026 $97.50 calls on Charles Schwab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.