The Q1 Cloud Face-off Is Over -- There Was 1 Clear Winner

Source Motley_fool

Key Points

  • Investors were looking to first-quarter earnings for insight into how the AI boom and cloud adoption were playing out.

  • The results confirmed that demand remained high, with each of the Big Three cloud providers remaining capacity-constrained.

  • While each of the major cloud infrastructure services made headway, one gained ground on its biggest rivals.

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After several years of deceleration, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) has reignited cloud computing in a big way. The Big Three cloud infrastructure providers -- namely Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) -- all reported accelerating growth. AI models require massive computing power for training and inference, making them an ideal fit for the cloud.

The unprecedented demand for AI has these cloud rivals scrambling to expand capacity, with each reporting record levels of spending on capital expenditures (capex). Those investments are paying off, as each of the Big Three reported an acceleration in cloud growth in the calendar first quarter.

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Despite impressive growth across the board, there was one clear winner in the cloud face-off. Let's dig through the numbers to see who it was.

A row of rack servers in a data center.

Image source: Getty Images.

Amazon Web Services

Amazon Web Services (AWS) was a cloud infrastructure pioneer, launching its cloud computing services in 2006. The company had a clear head start on the competition, which has helped it maintain its lead to this day. In the first quarter, AWS revenue grew 28% year over year to $37.6 billion.

CEO Andy Jassy has previously stated that Amazon plans to spend $200 billion in capex in 2026, noting that spending "primarily relates to AWS and generative AI." He went on to say that Amazon's "AI revenue is growing triple digits year over year ... We're monetizing capacity as fast as we can install it."

Amazon is obviously reaping the benefits of its cloud and AI-centric strategy. AWS continued to control roughly 28% of the worldwide cloud infrastructure market in Q1, according to Statista.

Microsoft Azure

Microsoft launched Azure Cloud to customers in 2010, and its intelligent cloud services segment has become one of the company's three major breadwinners. During Microsoft's fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended March 31), cloud revenue grew 30% year over year to $34.7 billion, with Azure Cloud posting 40% growth. That puts the segment within striking distance of becoming the company's biggest wage earner, which is likely to happen in the next few quarters.

CFO Amy Hood said Microsoft expects to spend $190 billion in fiscal 2026 on capex, with the majority of that spending to support cloud and AI demand. Even then, the company expects to "remain capacity constrained "at least through 2026." Microsoft also reported that AI revenue surpassed an annual run rate of $37 billion, up 123%.

Microsoft's spending has helped it gain ground on Amazon, with 21% market share in Q1, according to Statista.

Google Cloud

Google Cloud launched its infrastructure services in 2010, and while it has long been one of the Big Three cloud providers, its recent success in AI has supercharged its efforts. In the first quarter, Google Cloud revenue surged 63% to $20 billion, marking its fastest growth rate since the company began reporting cloud results in 2020.

CEO Sundar said the cloud backlog "nearly doubled" to over $460 billion during the quarter. He also noted that "Enterprise AI solutions have become our primary growth driver for Cloud for the first time." To that point, revenue from AI models grew 800% year over year. Alphabet boosted its capex forecast to $185 billion at the midpoint of its guidance, up from $180 billion, due to "unprecedented ... demand for AI."

Those investments are paying off, as Google Cloud increased its worldwide market share to 14% in Q1, according to Statista.

Infographic: Big Three Hold Dominant Lead in Accelerating Cloud Market | Statista Image source: Statista.

The clear winner

For my money, Alphabet was the clear winner of the Q1 cloud faceoff. Google Cloud delivered its fastest pace of growth on record, meaningfully higher than that of its two larger cloud rivals.

Even Jassy has taken note. Earlier this year, Amazon's chief executive was asked about the competition and sought to downplay its smaller rival's faster growth rate. "It's very different having 24% year-over-year growth on a $142 billion annualized run rate than to have a higher percentage growth on a meaningfully smaller base, which is the case with our competitors.

To be clear, I think Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are all buys at this point, selling for 30 times, 27 times, and 24 times forward earnings, respectively.

That said, I think Alphabet stock is particularly intriguing right now. The company's Gemini AI is drawing rave reviews, and Google Cloud is growing like gangbusters. Add to that its $460 billion backlog, and Alphabet was the clear winner of the Q1 cloud face-off -- and the stock is a compelling opportunity right now.

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Danny Vena, CPA has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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