Is This the Week Disney Stock Finally Wakes Up?

Despite all of the "happily ever after" stories that put Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) on the map, the stock itself has languished in recent years. Shares of the media bellwether have risen nearly 10% over the past year, but that's less than half of the market's return in that time.

Zoom out, and the chart only gets worse. The stock is flat over the last three years, and down a brutal 42% over the past year. It doesn't seem fair. Disney turned the early pandemic-era headwinds into tailwinds. Its theme parks are generating record revenue and profits. Its movie studio released the three highest-grossing films by U.S. studios last year. Streaming service Disney+ has been profitable for more than a year.

Image source: Disney.

Disney stock is off to a rough start in 2026. The shares are trading 11% lower year to date. It's against this uninspiring backdrop that the entertainment giant is set to deliver one of its biggest financial updates in years.

The House of Mouse reports results for its fiscal second quarter this week, ahead of Wednesday's market open. It will be new CEO Josh D'Amaro's first earnings call since taking over after Disney's annual shareholder meeting in March.

Show me the mouse ears

Wall Street pros are bracing for modest growth on both the top and bottom lines. They see revenue climbing 5% to $24.8 billion for the quarter. Analysts are modeling $1.50 a share in earnings, a mere 3% year-over-year uptick. The market was expecting a profit of $1.65 a share for the fiscal second quarter just three months ago.

The good news is that Disney is on a long streak of earnings beats. The bad news? Well, the degree of the positive surprises has been shrinking with every passing report over the past year.

Data source: Yahoo! Finance.

Here is where the stakes start to percolate. Back in February, Disney's guidance called for double-digit growth in operating income in the second half of this fiscal year. The media mogul had previously expected the double-digit gains in operating profit to continue through at least fiscal 2027.

A lot has happened since that financial update in February. The war in Iran has led to a spike in fuel prices. This is a one-two punch for Disney across many of its needle-moving businesses. The instability overseas is likely weighing on Disney's theme parks, particularly for international visitors to its growing collection of global theme parks.

The same can be said of the subsequent surge in fuel costs. It now costs more to fly or drive out to Disney World or Disneyland. Disney's theme parks were resilient following the COVID-19 shutdown. Are they starting to feel the pinch now? Are bookings for future theme park getaways starting to slow down?

With folks spending more money on gas -- as well as food and other household essentials that now cost more to move around -- what will this mean for Disney+ subscriptions or visits to the local multiplex? Disney is now five weeks into the second half of fiscal 2026, which was supposed to deliver an operating profit of at least 10%. With some consumer-facing companies striking a tone of near-term caution, will Disney be the next one to pare back earlier growth expectations?

Simply sticking to its earlier guidance would probably be enough to send the shares higher. The last thing that D'Amaro wants is to spoil his first earnings call as CEO with a disappointing quarter. If guidance proves challenging, will Disney try to offset the sting with positive announcements or stepping up its stock buyback or dividend activity? Being in the spotlight comes naturally for the leading entertainment company, but there's a lot riding on Wednesday morning's financial update and earnings call.

Rick Munarriz has positions in Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.