What Could Happen if You Put $10,000 Into Oklo Today?

Imagine a future in which companies have their own clean power coming from a Nordic-looking eco-cabin. That, in a sense, is what Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) is working on.

Oklo is an advanced nuclear technology company developing micro nuclear reactors called Aurora Powerhouses to deliver clean energy reliably. These small reactors will be able to run nonstop for years and even use nuclear waste as fuel.

Think of all the places that could use reliable clean electricity: data centers, remote industrial or mining sites, military bases, research facilities, even towns or cities. These, and more, represent the huge market for nuclear power which Bank of America estimates will be worth about $10 trillion by 2050.

With a market cap of $13 billion on zero revenue, what would happen if you invested $10,000 in this speculative play on a nuclear future?

This is what Oklo says the Aurora Powerhouse will look like. Image source: Oklo.

The bullish case for Oklo

In the most bullish scenario, your $10,000 investment in Oklo could 10x over the next decade or two.

It's not hard to understand why some folks believe this will be the case. In a world that feels always "on" -- from AI chatbots to electric vehicles to streaming platforms and cloud servers and data centers -- the electricity that powers it all is becoming harder to take for granted. Likewise, the grid is starting to look grossly unprepared for the scale of demand that's coming.

Just consider this: Much of the U.S. electric grid was built in the decades after World War II, with about 70% of its lines and transformers now nearing their third decade of use. Or this: Within the next 25 years, U.S. electricity demand is expected to grow 78%, driven largely by new data centers.

You don't need to be an engineer to see the problem here. Either we figure out how to supply more power to data centers, or their electricity usage will strain infrastructure and cause energy bills to spike for everyone reliant on it.

Oklo's small reactors could offer a workaround. Instead of rebuilding U.S. infrastructure to accommodate data center growth, Oklo wants to deploy compact nuclear power plants near large customers.

It's an attractive idea, as evidenced by the companies supporting Oklo. It's already struck an agreement with Meta to supply power to a 1.2-gigawatt campus in Ohio for the latter's data centers. This is in addition to a customer backlog that totals more than 14 GW.

As long as AI data centers are constrained by power -- the bullish case goes -- companies like Meta will be more willing to sign long-term agreements with Oklo. That, in turn, could give this company a recurring stream of sales.

Why investors shouldn't get too carried away

Oklo already carries a $13 billion market valuation. It has no revenue, and it lacks the regulatory approval needed to commercialize its reactors. As such, the nuclear energy stock is already priced for success, which is another way of saying it's priced to fall if things don't go as planned.

Oklo has a strong cash position, around $1.2 billion, with a cash burn rate of about $100 million a year. Still, without an operating reactor, investors should be prepared for, at best, asymmetric growth from here.

Investing $10,000 in Oklo at this point, then, would be very risky. The gains could make you a millionaire, but they could also leave you with a huge loss that's hard to recover from.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Steven Porrello has positions in Oklo. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.