Why This Beaten-Down Cannabis Giant is a Table-Pounding Buy

Some investors might give Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF) a green thumb down these days. The multi-state cannabis operator's share price is down by a double-digit percentage year to date. Green Thumb's stock is also more than 80% below its peak set in early 2021.

However, the company remains one of the top players in the U.S. cannabis market, with 113 dispensaries and operations in 14 states. Here's why Green Thumb is a table-pounding buy.

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Financially strong with an upcoming catalyst

Marijuana stocks, in general, are struggling right now. A supply demand imbalance persists in the U.S., with declining prices exerting significant financial pressure. Many cannabis operators continue to lose money. But not Green Thumb.

The Illinois-based company generated $1.2 billion in revenue for 2025. Its earnings topped $114 million last year. Green Thumb's fourth quarter was even stronger, with revenue rising 5.7% year over year to $311.1 million and net income of $83.2 million.

Sure, earnings numbers can sometimes be misleading due to accounting tricks. That isn't the case with Green Thumb, though. Cash flow isn't as easily manipulated. Green Thumb generated cash flow from operations of roughly $295 million in 2025.

The company's balance sheet is solid. Green Thumb's cash position stood at $274.3 million at the end of 2025. The cannabis operator also recently increased its existing syndicated credit facility by $50 million. Founder and CEO Ben Kovler said, "Adding $50 million to our balance sheet at a low rate should be good for our shareholders long term."

A promising catalyst should be right around the corner for Green Thumb. President Trump signed an executive order in December 2025 that directed the U.S. Attorney General to expedite the rescheduling of cannabis to Schedule III, which includes drugs "with a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence."

This rescheduling will effectively lift the IRS Section 280E restrictions on companies that sell Schedule I or II drugs, allowing them to deduct ordinary business expenses. Green Thumb's bottom line should benefit significantly once rescheduling is finalized.

Pounding the table

All eight analysts surveyed by S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) in April who cover Green Thumb rated the stock a buy. The consensus 12-month price target for the stock implies roughly 169% upside.

Sure, Green Thumb's stock is likely to remain volatile. That comes with the territory when you invest in marijuana stocks. But with its solid financials and a catalyst on the way that will boost earnings, I think the analysts are right: Green Thumb is a stock worthy of pounding the table for aggressive investors.

Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends S&P Global. The Motley Fool recommends Green Thumb Industries. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.