Prediction: XRP (Ripple) Will Hit This Price in 2026

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, recently lowered his 2026 forecast for XRP (CRYPTO: XRP). His previous prediction put the cryptocurrency at $8 by December, but he now estimates $2.80 due to macroeconomic headwinds. However, the new number still implies 107% upside from its current price of $1.35.

I think Kendrick was right to trim his target, but I still believe he's too optimistic. XRP is has fallen 61% from its high, and I think its price will continue dropping throughout the year, potentially hitting $1 by December. Here's why.

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XRP is not gaining traction as a bridge currency

XRP is the native digital asset on the XRP Ledger, a blockchain developed for faster and cheaper cross-border transactions than are possible with the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) messaging system.

SWIFT is the dominant network for international wire transfers, but payments often incur high fees because they are usually routed through multiple banks, and each one charges processing fees. Additionally, SWIFT payments may take several days to settle. The XRP blockchain moves money in seconds and fees are negligible.

Beyond those benefits, XRP has another thing working in its favor. Fintech company Ripple has an enterprise payment platform that utilizes XRP as a bridge currency. Specifically, Ripple Payments ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) converts fiat currency to XRP, moves it through the blockchain, then converts its back to fiat currency at its destination.

Last year, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicted XRP would capture 14% market share from SWIFT by 2030, which implies the network will facilitate about $21 trillion in annual transaction volume within five years. If that happens, demand for XRP could drive its price much higher. But I doubt Garlinghouse is correct.

XRP transaction volume has been relatively static over the past year, which suggests that businesses are not adopting XRP are as a bridge currency. I doubt that will change in the future. It simply does not make sense to move money with a cryptocurrency (whose price is subject to extreme fluctuations) when stablecoins are an option.

Ripple has attempted addressed that problem by adding the stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD) to its payments ecosystem, but that has so far failed to move the needle for XRP (which is still required to pay transaction fees on the blockchain). I doubt that will change because RLUSD faces competition from more established options like USDT and USDC.

Spot XRP ETFs have not moved the needle

Spot XRP ETFs are investment funds that track the price of XRP. They provide investors an easy onramp by eliminating the hassle and high fees associated with cryptocurrency exchanges. To date, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved six spot ETFs that exclusively hold XRP.

Those funds were supposed to be a major catalyst. But they have yet to move the needle since becoming available late last year. In fact, XRP has declined 42% in 2026 despite the availability of those funds. Daily net inflows to spot XRP ETFs have consistently trended downward, and assets under management (AUM) sits at $1 billion, representing about 1.2% of XRP's $81 billion market cap.

Comparatively, Bitcoin has declined only 23% year to date, and AUM across spot Bitcoin ETFs sits around $95 billion, representing 6.4% of its $1.4 trillion market value. So what? Institutional investors are more likely to purchase regulated spot ETFs than unregulated cryptocurrency. So, the fact that spot XRP ETFs account for a relatively small percentage of XRP's market value suggests weak institutional interest, at least compared to Bitcoin.

Here's the big picture: XRP has limited potential as a bridge currency when stablecoins are a less volatile option, and spot XRP ETFs have so far been inconsequential. That leaves XRP without any real catalysts for price appreciation, which is why I think its price will drop to $1 before the end of 2026.

Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and XRP. The Motley Fool recommends Standard Chartered Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.