Singapore: Policy slope tightening view – DBS

DBS Group Research expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to slightly increase the SGD NEER policy band slope at the October review, while keeping the width and centre unchanged. The team, led by Taimur Baig, anticipates calibrated tightening driven by import cost pressures and resilient growth, alongside strong Q3 2026 GDP supported by AI-led trade and financial sector strength.

MAS stance and Singapore growth outlook

"Import cost pressures and resilient growth favour a calibrated tightening, rather than a more forceful adjustment, in line with the global monetary policy stance."

"Also due to be released alongside the MAS’ policy decision are the 3Q26 advance GDP estimates, which we expect to show another quarter of strong growth at 5.4% yoy (1.4% qoq sa), compared with 5.9% yoy (1.4% qoq sa) in 2Q26."

"Robust economic performance continued to be driven by artificial intelligence (AI)-led trade activity, supporting the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors, while strength in the financial sector underpinned the resilience of the modern services cluster."

"This came despite a moderation of the transport & storage sector, and weakness in consumer-facing food services and retail sectors."

"We expect another slight increase in the SGD NEER policy band slope at the MAS’ October review, with no change to the band’s width or centre."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)