South Korean Won: Fading strength as volatility stays high – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports South Korean Won (KRW) led declines in Asia FX, pressured by higher Oil, firmer UST yields, softer risk tone and heavy foreign equity outflows. He expects USD/KRW to stay choppy and vulnerable if Oil remains elevated and risk sentiment fragile, but advises against chasing the pair higher. Wong prefers fading rallies, citing Korea’s AI/export leverage and resilient semiconductor cycle as medium-term supports.

KRW pressured but rallies seen to fade

"KRW came under renewed pressure overnight and led declines in Asian FX."

"Near term, USDKRW can remain choppy and vulnerable to wider swings, especially if oil prices stay elevated and global risk sentiment remains fragile."

"we would avoid chasing USD/KRW higher from here and would look to fade rallies selectively for better risk-reward, as Korea’s AI/export leverage and still-resilient semiconductor cycle remain medium-term supports once the geopolitical/rates impulse settles."

"USD/KRW last seen at 1493 levels. Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI rose."

"Near term risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 1501, 1510 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Support at 1474/78 levels (21DMA, 50% fibo). Bias to sell rallies."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)