Zcash Price Forecast: Downside risk looms as ETF outflows and falling Open Interest weigh

• Zcash is up nearly 3% on Monday, extending the rebound from the previous day’s low around $1,049.
• Grayscale’s Zcash ETF recorded its third consecutive weekly outflow of $19.15 million, suggesting increased investor redemptions.
• The steady decline in ZEC futures Open Interest to $2.25 billion, from $2.56 billion last week, suggests reduced retail speculation.

Zcash (ZEC) edges higher on Monday after three consecutive weeks of bearish closes totaling roughly 30% losses. The privacy coin is losing institutional confidence with three straight weeks of outflows, while retail speculation eases as ZEC futures Open Interest declines to a 30-day low. The technical outlook for ZEC indicates downside risk, as the price remains capped below a cluster of overhead resistance levels.

Declining retail demand and steady ETF outflows weigh on Zcash

Zcash is seeing a steady decline in demand among institutional investors. SoSoValue data shows that Grayscale’s ZEC-focused Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) recorded $19.15 million in outflows last week, following two previous weeks of $30.72 million and $93.56 million in outflows. This indicates that the ZEC ETF is experiencing intense selling pressure as investors redeem shares.

On the other hand, the retail demand for Zcash is declining. CoinGlass data shows that ZEC futures Open Interest (OI) is down to $2.25 billion from $3.29 billion last month, marking a 30-day low. This indicates that the notional value of active Zcash positions has significantly reduced, which typically implies a decline in retail interest.

Technical outlook: Will Zcash price drop below $1,000?

Zcash hovers around $1,158 at press time on Monday, extending mild gains after a bearish 11% close last week. The privacy coin keeps a capped near-term bias below its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart at $1,184, keeping the recent bullish attempts in check. In addition, the 200-period EMA at $1,240 sits above the short-term EMA, suggesting a corrective trend in motion.

Momentum remains neutral but fragile on the four-hour chart, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) marginally above its signal line in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 50.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 50-period EMA around $1,184, with further barriers at the descending resistance trendline break level near $1,229 and then the 200-period EMA at $1,240, where a sustained break would be needed to ease the broader bearish pressure.

On the downside, structural support is defined by the September 4 high at $1,050, which is reinforced by the $1,000 psychological threshold. A sustained breakout below $1,000 could extend the decline toward the August 23 high at $888.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)