Prediction markets topped $50 billion in 2025, driven by frequent small trades

What was once thought to be merely internet gambling has grown into a huge, multibillion-dollar industry. This growth is still running strong, according to recent data from early 2026.

In 2025, the overall trading volume on prediction markets, platforms where people speculate on the results of actual events, exceeded $50 billion.

They were making over $20 billion a month by the beginning of 2026.

According to a joint analysis from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, one platform, Polymarket, reported $25.7 billion in trading volume in March 2026 alone.

A limited number of large spenders are not driving the expansion. Millions of regular customers who frequently return to make minor trades are what fuel it.

“Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet. “What we’re seeing is a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.”

Polymarket’s Elden Mirzoian agrees, noting that traders are becoming more active and consistent. He believes reaching new users is now just as important as developing the platforms themselves.

Sports lead, retail traders dominate

Data from 1.29 million wallets tracked in the first quarter of 2026 backs this up.

Users are logging in more often and trading across a wider range of topics, from sports and politics to finance, economics, and crypto.

Sports led all categories in Q1 2026, with $10.1 billion in volume.

Political markets came in as the second-biggest category, pulling in $5 billion over the same three months.

Roughly 82.8% of users traded less than $10,000 during this period, confirming that the sector’s expansion is being built on volume of activity, not size of individual bets.

The sector is being forced to expand its underlying infrastructure due to the retail boom.

For operators who wish to offer prediction markets under their own brand without having to start from scratch, a business called Shift Markets has offered a white-label software application.

The program enables several hedging strategies, connects to liquidity sources like Kalshi and Polymarket, and interfaces with pre-existing platforms.

“Prediction markets are expanding too quickly for trading platforms to ignore,” said Ian McAfee, chief executive of Shift Markets. “Most operators already see the opportunity, but don’t have a clear path to enter without rebuilding their platform. Our software gives them a practical way to do that while maintaining full control over their product and user experience.”

Prediction market competition heats up

At the same time, established names are losing ground to upstart competitors.

With the debut of its mainnet beta in November, XO Market is establishing itself as a direct rival to Kalshi and Polymarket.

The creation of markets is the primary distinction.

XO Market allows users to construct their own markets and receive a portion of the revenue such markets generate, in contrast to traditional platforms that rely on internal staff to choose which events to list.

The platform has already processed over $150 million in trading activity since its introduction.

XO Market raised $6 million to support its user-generated model and is preparing to launch a feature called XO Vaults, which would allow everyday users to provide liquidity to markets and earn returns on it, a role that has traditionally been handled by professional trading firms.

The industry is shifting from the periphery of finance to something more in line with core financial infrastructure as a result of the larger change that is taking place.

Uncertain regulations and continuous conflict between federal and state oversight are only two of the difficulties that lie ahead.

However, prediction markets are becoming more accessible than ever because of the mix of user-generated markets for players and white-label technologies for operators.

Technology may not have as much of an impact on whether that momentum continues as trust, that is, whether the mechanisms for resolving market outcomes can keep up with the quick expansion of the quantity and diversity of new markets.

There’s a middle ground between leaving money in the bank and rolling the dice in crypto. Start with this free video on decentralized finance.